AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
ElversbergElversbergLDLWL
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1019:30UK
MainzMainzLWLWL

Elversberg vs Mainz corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners52.8%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Elversberg.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 75.8% 24.2%
8.5 corners 64.8% 35.3%
9.5 corners 52.8% 47.2%
10.5 corners 41.0% 59.0%
11.5 corners 30.3% 69.7%
12.5 corners 21.4% 78.6%

Who wins the corner count

Elversberg
55.7%
Level
10.5%
Mainz
33.8%

Team corners lines

Elversberg

Over 3.5
76.1%
Over 4.5
61.3%
Over 5.5
46.1%

Mainz

Over 3.5
62.0%
Over 4.5
44.8%
Over 5.5
29.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Elversberg's; Mainz gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Elversberg line Elversberg Mainz
-3.5 25.2% 74.8%
-1.5 44.9% 55.1%
-0.5 55.7% 44.3%
+0.5 66.2% 33.8%
ElversbergElversberg

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Elversberg at home and Mainz away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MainzMainz
Statistic
Elversberg
Mainz
Corners won per game at this venue
3.7
3.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
8.0
4.7

First-half corners won per game
2.3
2.1

Second-half corners won per game
1.7
2.9

Matches with more corners than the opponent
28.6%
42.9%

Matches with corner data
7
7

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.8% for over 7.5 to 21.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Head to head on corners, Elversberg are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.7%, with a level count at 10.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Elversberg over 4.5 corners sits at 61.3% and Mainz at 44.8%. This season Elversberg have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Mainz 5.0.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.8%Over 9.5 corners
55.7%Most corners: Elversberg
61.3%Elversberg over 4.5 corners
44.8%Mainz over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderElversberg are the pick to win the corner count at 55.7%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 52.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
ElversbergElversberg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MainzMainz
Statistic
Elversberg
Mainz
corners won per game
4.0
5.0

corners conceded per game
7.4
4.4

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Elversberg vs Mainz?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 52.8% for Elversberg vs Mainz.
Which team will win the corner count in Elversberg vs Mainz?
The model rates Elversberg to win the corner count at 55.7%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Elversberg and Mainz average this season?
Elversberg have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Mainz 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaElversberg fixtures and statsMainz fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.