AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
CoventryCoventryLLWWL
Full time0-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK11°C · Rain
FulhamFulhamLDDLW

Coventry 0-1 Fulham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.3%

Result

Coventry0-1Fulham
2 yellow cardsCoventry 0, Fulham 2
0 red cardsCoventry 0, Fulham 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.7% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 86.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Adam Herczeg

Recorded match referee.

Adam Herczeg in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 83 8
Goals 2.67 3.38
Yellow cards 3.42 4.00
Red cards 0.11 0.12
Corners 9.9 10.1
Fouls 23.3 22.9
Both teams scored 51% 63%
Over 2.5 goals 49% 63%
Home wins 46% 63%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Coventry vs Fulham 0-1 1 No 2 0 10 20
17 Oct 2026 West Brom vs BlackburnChampionship 3-2 5 Yes 5 0 12 25
11 Oct 2026 Southampton vs PortsmouthChampionship 1-0 1 No 6 1 6 26
20 Sep 2026 Leeds vs Crystal Palace 0-0 0 No 5 0 7 22
12 Sep 2026 Middlesbrough vs NorwichChampionship 4-3 7 Yes 3 0 8 22
6 Sep 2026 Birmingham vs WolvesChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 12 29
29 Aug 2026 Southampton vs MillwallChampionship 5-1 6 Yes 3 0 19 16
15 Aug 2026 Bolton vs PrestonChampionship 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 7 23
25 Apr 2026 Middlesbrough vs WatfordChampionship 5-1 6 Yes 3 0 9 18
18 Apr 2026 Wrexham vs StokeChampionship 2-0 2 No 1 0 8 16

Adam Herczeg referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Coventry vs Fulham. The model leans toward Fulham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.9% 32.1%
3.5 cards 46.3% 53.7%
4.5 cards 27.4% 72.6%
5.5 cards 14.2% 85.8%

Who picks up more cards

Coventry
28.1%
Level
21.5%
Fulham
50.4%

Team cards lines

Coventry

Over 1.5
43.4%
Over 2.5
18.5%

Fulham

Over 1.5
60.0%
Over 2.5
33.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Coventry's; Fulham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Coventry line Coventry Fulham
-1.5 12.7% 87.3%
-0.5 28.1% 71.9%
+0.5 49.6% 50.4%
+1.5 70.7% 29.3%

Red card

Any red card13.4%
Coventry red card10.3%
Fulham red card3.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 53.8% 46.2%
22.5 fouls 37.6% 62.4%
24.5 fouls 23.7% 76.3%
CoventryCoventry

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Coventry at home and Fulham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

FulhamFulham
Statistic
Coventry
Fulham
Yellow cards per game
·
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
·
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
·
1.2

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.9% for over 2.5 to 14.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. On the card count, Fulham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.4%, with a level count at 21.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Coventry over 1.5 cards sits at 43.4% and Fulham at 60.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.4% (Coventry 10.3%, Fulham 3.5%).

46.3%Over 3.5 cards
13.4%Any red card
50.4%Most cards: Fulham
43.4%Coventry over 1.5 cards
60.0%Fulham over 1.5 cards
37.6%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianFulham are the pick to collect more cards at 50.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 46.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CoventryCoventry

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

FulhamFulham
Statistic
Coventry
Fulham
fouls per game
12.0
10.0

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Coventry vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.3% for Coventry vs Fulham.
Will there be a red card in Coventry vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Coventry vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fulham to pick up more cards at 50.4%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueCoventry fixtures and statsFulham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.