AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
CoventryCoventryLLWWL
Full time0-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK11°C · Rain
FulhamFulhamLDDLW

Coventry 0-1 Fulham expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Coventry1.20

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Fulham1.77

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Coventry0-1Fulham
0.40 – 0.57 xGUnderstat

The match produced 0.40 xG for Coventry and 0.57 xG for Fulham, against a final score of 0-1. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

Coventry have created 1.20 xG and scored 1.00 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Fulham have created 1.77 xG and scored 0.83 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

CoventryCoventry

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

FulhamFulham
Statistic
Coventry
Fulham
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.20
1.77

xG conceded per game
1.65
1.54

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

CoventryCoventryLast 5
L
Loss · 0-1
L
Loss · 0-5
W
Win · 1-0
W
Win · 4-1
L
Loss · 1-3

2 wins · 0 draws · 3 losses

FulhamFulhamLast 5
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 0-0
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 1-0

1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

No recorded head-to-head results available.

Match outlook

Coventry31.0%
Draw27.5%
PickFulham41.5%

The model leans Fulham to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

41.5%Favoured: Fulham
53.3%Both Teams to Score
48.2%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

CoventryCoventry (1)
Taiwo Awoniyi
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
10.9%
9.17
1+ shot on target
26.1%
3.83
2+ shots
17.1%
5.85
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.90
On target1.18
Goals0.45
FulhamFulham (1)
Rodrigo Muniz
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
14.8%
6.76
1+ shot on target
32.9%
3.04
2+ shots
34.5%
2.90
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.28
On target1.07
Goals0.43

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Premier League, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

Premier LeagueCoventry fixtures and statsFulham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.