League TwoChesterfield vs York Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 54.4% and it landed (11 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.5% for over 7.5 to 23.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. On the corner count, Chesterfield are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.2%, with a level count at 10.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.6%
61.1%
46.2%
63.8%
47.2%
32.2%
Corner handicap
| Chesterfield line | Chesterfield | York |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| -0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
This season (2026/27)
3.7Chesterfield corners won per game3.2Chesterfield corners conceded per game7.0York corners won per game4.3York corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Chesterfield.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
54.4%Over 9.5 corners61.1%Chesterfield over 4.5 corners47.2%York over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Chesterfield over 4.5 corners sits at 61.1% and York at 47.2%. This season Chesterfield have averaged 3.7 corners won a game and York 7.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.4% for Chesterfield vs York.
Which team will win the corner count in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated Chesterfield to win the corner count at 54.2%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Chesterfield and York average this season?
Chesterfield have won 3.7 corners a game this season and York 7.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
