League TwoChesterfield vs York Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 50.3% and it landed (33 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 55.8% and it landed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 50.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.9% for over 22.5 to 27.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.3%. Head to head on shots, Chesterfield are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.8%, with a level count at 6.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.3% | 72.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.9%
54.1%
37.6%
56.7%
38.5%
23.5%
Shot handicap
| Chesterfield line | Chesterfield | York |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.9% | 67.2% |
| -2.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| -0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +0.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.5% | 56.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.2% | 67.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
14.7Chesterfield shots per game12.5Chesterfield shots faced per game18.5York shots per game11.3York shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Chesterfield.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.3%Over 24.5 shots54.1%Chesterfield over 12.5 shots38.5%York over 12.5 shots55.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Chesterfield over 12.5 shots sits at 54.1% and York at 38.5%. This season Chesterfield have averaged 14.7 shots a game and York 18.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 50.3% for Chesterfield vs York.
Which team will have more shots in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated Chesterfield to take more shots at 57.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
