League TwoFleetwood Town vs Rochdale Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.4% for over 7.5 to 21.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. On the corner count, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 10.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.4% | 25.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.4% | 78.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.1%
60.4%
45.5%
60.9%
44.0%
29.3%
Corner handicap
| Fleetwood Town line | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| -1.5 | 45.0% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 55.8% | 44.3% |
| +0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
This season (2026/27)
4.8Fleetwood Town corners won per game5.2Fleetwood Town corners conceded per game4.2Rochdale corners won per game5.5Rochdale corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Fleetwood Town.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.6%Over 9.5 corners60.4%Fleetwood Town over 4.5 corners44.0%Rochdale over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Fleetwood Town over 4.5 corners sits at 60.4% and Rochdale at 44.0%. This season Fleetwood Town have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Rochdale 4.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.6% for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale.
Which team will win the corner count in Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale?
The model rates Fleetwood Town to win the corner count at 55.8%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Fleetwood Town and Rochdale average this season?
Fleetwood Town have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Rochdale 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
