Barnet vs Fleetwood Town: model prediction
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Barnet or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time8 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Barnet at 49.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 50.9% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.9% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.1% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 53.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 70.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.3% and it landed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 53.2% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.0% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 51.9% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 89.2% and it missed.
| Match data | Barnet | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 2 | 0 |
| Shots | 13 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 4 |
| Corners | 5 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 20 | 19 |
Final match data.
Win probability · fair 2.00
Top signals
Model read
"When model and market disagree on Barnet, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Barnet at 50% for 19 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Barnet higher (57%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 1 wins for Barnet, 0 draws and 1 for Fleetwood Town over 2 games, 4.5 goals on average. The run in: Barnet arrive W3 D3 L0, Fleetwood Town W2 D4 L0. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.012 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
49.9%-6.9%
25.7%+2.1%
24.3%+4.7%
conservative EV -0.012 <= 0
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Barnet 1 · 0 draws · Fleetwood Town 1 · 4.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
85.7%16.7%
100.0%50.0%
0.0%50.0%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 60.7% | Over 24.5 | 48.0% | Over 26.5 | 35.8% | Over 28.5 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Barnet | 62.3% | Most: Fleetwood Town | 31.7% | ||||
| Barnet Over 13.2 | 47.2% | Fleetwood Town Over 13.2 | 25.9% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.7% | Over 7.5 | 51.9% | Over 8.5 | 39.5% | Over 9.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Barnet | 51.8% | Most: Fleetwood Town | 35.3% | ||||
| Barnet Over 4.2 | 42.0% | Fleetwood Town Over 4.2 | 30.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.6% | Over 3.5 | 53.2% | Over 4.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Barnet | 25.2% | Most: Fleetwood Town | 55.0% | ||
| Barnet Over 1.8 | 45.1% | Fleetwood Town Over 1.8 | 66.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Barnet clean sheet | 33.9% |
|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town clean sheet | 19.5% |
| Barnet win to nil | 26.7% |
| Fleetwood Town win to nil | 12.2% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.9% | draw | 25.8% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.7% | 12 | 74.3% | X2 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 67.2% | away | 32.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.6% | no | 46.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.2% | away | 19.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.9% | away | 12.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.1% | home_by_2 | 15.4% | home_by_3plus | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.0% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.2% | 0-1 | 6.6% | 0-2 | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 1-1 | 12.3% | 1-2 | 6.3% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.9% | 3-1 | 5.2% | 3-2 | 2.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.0% | 4-1 | 2.1% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.7% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.8% | under_0.5 | 7.2% | over_1.5 | 75.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.1% | over_2.5 | 50.9% | under_2.5 | 49.1% |
| over_3.5 | 28.9% | under_3.5 | 71.1% | over_4.5 | 13.9% |
| under_4.5 | 86.1% | over_5.5 | 5.8% | under_5.5 | 94.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 80.5% | under_0.5 | 19.5% | over_1.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.3% | over_2.5 | 22.7% | under_2.5 | 77.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.9% | under_0.5 | 34.2% | over_1.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.8% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
most
| home | 49.9% | draw | 25.8% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.4% | away_+2.5 | 88.6% | home_-1.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 73.2% | home_-0.5 | 49.9% | away_+0.5 | 50.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.6% | away_-0.5 | 24.3% | home_+1.5 | 90.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.4% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.2% | exact_1 | 16.8% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.0% | exact_5 | 8.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.7% | exact_7plus | 2.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.5% | draw | 40.6% | away | 19.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.4% | under_0.5 | 29.6% | over_1.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.6% | over_2.5 | 12.5% | under_2.5 | 87.5% |
btts
| yes | 19.2% | no | 80.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.6% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.9% | exact_4plus | 3.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.4% | draw | 35.4% | away | 24.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.9% | under_0.5 | 21.1% | over_1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.9% | over_2.5 | 20.5% | under_2.5 | 79.5% |
btts
| yes | 28.3% | no | 71.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.2% | H/D | 5.4% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.4% | D/D | 14.4% | D/A | 9.8% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 12.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.6% | under_7.5 | 24.4% | over_8.5 | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.1% | over_9.5 | 53.3% | under_9.5 | 46.7% |
| over_10.5 | 41.9% | under_10.5 | 58.1% | over_11.5 | 31.5% |
| under_11.5 | 68.5% | over_12.5 | 22.7% | under_12.5 | 77.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.5% | under_3.5 | 21.5% | over_4.5 | 64.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.2% | over_5.5 | 50.3% | under_5.5 | 49.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.0% | under_3.5 | 42.0% | over_4.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.2% | over_5.5 | 26.5% | under_5.5 | 73.5% |
most
| home | 60.9% | draw | 9.9% | away | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.0% | away_+3.5 | 70.0% | home_-1.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.9% | away_+0.5 | 39.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.8% | away_-0.5 | 29.2% | home_+1.5 | 79.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.6% | home_+3.5 | 91.3% | away_-3.5 | 8.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.7% | under_22.5 | 39.3% | over_24.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.0% | over_26.5 | 35.8% | under_26.5 | 64.2% |
| over_28.5 | 25.2% | under_28.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.2% | under_10.5 | 27.8% | over_12.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.4% | over_14.5 | 39.1% | under_14.5 | 60.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.6% | under_10.5 | 48.4% | over_12.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.5% | over_14.5 | 19.5% | under_14.5 | 80.5% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.0% | away_+4.5 | 63.0% | home_-2.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.4% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.2% | home_+4.5 | 86.9% | away_-4.5 | 13.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.7% | under_6.5 | 35.3% | over_7.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 48.1% | over_8.5 | 39.5% | under_8.5 | 60.5% |
| over_9.5 | 28.6% | under_9.5 | 71.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.2% | under_3.5 | 40.8% | over_4.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.0% | over_5.5 | 27.5% | under_5.5 | 72.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.4% | under_3.5 | 52.6% | over_4.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.7% | over_5.5 | 17.7% | under_5.5 | 82.3% |
most
| home | 51.8% | draw | 12.9% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.2% | away_+2.5 | 72.8% | home_-0.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.2% | home_+0.5 | 64.7% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.0% | away_-2.5 | 15.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.6% | under_2.5 | 26.4% | over_3.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.8% | over_4.5 | 33.8% | under_4.5 | 66.2% |
| over_5.5 | 18.9% | under_5.5 | 81.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 45.2% | under_1.5 | 54.9% | over_2.5 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.9% | under_1.5 | 33.1% | over_2.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 25.2% | draw | 19.8% | away | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.4% | away_+1.5 | 88.6% | home_-0.5 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 74.8% | home_+0.5 | 45.0% | away_-0.5 | 55.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 65.7% | away_-1.5 | 34.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 72.8% | under_20.5 | 27.2% | over_22.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 41.6% | over_24.5 | 43.3% | under_24.5 | 56.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 59.4% | under_9.5 | 40.6% | over_11.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.2% | over_13.5 | 19.0% | under_13.5 | 81.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.2% | under_9.5 | 16.8% | over_11.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.1% | over_13.5 | 45.8% | under_13.5 | 54.2% |
most
| home | 26.6% | draw | 6.7% | away | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.4% | away_+3.5 | 88.6% | home_-0.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.4% | home_+2.5 | 48.1% | away_-2.5 | 51.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.8% | no | 89.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.6% | no | 93.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).
More: Barnet predictions · Fleetwood Town predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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