League TwoChesterfield vs York Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 88.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.7% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Head to head on cards, York are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 21.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.5%
20.8%
61.7%
34.7%
Card handicap
| Chesterfield line | Chesterfield | York |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.6% | 86.4% |
| -0.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| +0.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| +1.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.5% | 71.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Chesterfield cards per game10.5Chesterfield fouls per game1.2York cards per game7.8York fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chesterfield vs York. It tips York for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
49.6%Over 3.5 cards11.8%Any red card46.5%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards61.7%York over 1.5 cards42.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Chesterfield over 1.5 cards sits at 46.5% and York at 61.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.8% (Chesterfield 7.9%, York 4.2%). This season Chesterfield have averaged 2.0 cards a game and York 1.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.6% for Chesterfield vs York.
Will there be a red card in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chesterfield vs York?
Before kickoff, the model rated York to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
