League TwoNewport County vs Grimsby Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 53.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.5% for over 7.5 to 23.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.4%. Head to head on corners, Newport County are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 49.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.8%
57.7%
42.6%
67.3%
51.1%
36.0%
Corner handicap
| Newport County line | Newport County | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| -0.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| +0.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| +1.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
This season (2026/27)
3.8Newport County corners won per game6.3Newport County corners conceded per game7.2Grimsby corners won per game4.8Grimsby corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Newport County.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
54.4%Over 9.5 corners57.7%Newport County over 4.5 corners51.1%Grimsby over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Newport County over 4.5 corners sits at 57.7% and Grimsby at 51.1%. This season Newport County have averaged 3.8 corners won a game and Grimsby 7.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Newport County vs Grimsby?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.4% for Newport County vs Grimsby.
Which team will win the corner count in Newport County vs Grimsby?
The model rates Newport County to win the corner count at 49.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Newport County and Grimsby average this season?
Newport County have won 3.8 corners a game this season and Grimsby 7.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
