League TwoChesterfield vs York Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 52.3% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 69.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.6% and it missed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Chesterfield have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, York 2.0 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.3% for over 2.5 and 76.8% for at least two goals. Chesterfield have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, York in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.2% | 93.8% |
Team goal lines
84.8%
56.2%
29.3%
58.6%
22.1%
6.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 78.3% | 21.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 19.8% | 80.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Chesterfield goals scored per game1.3Chesterfield goals conceded per game57.1%Chesterfield Over 2.5 rate0.7Chesterfield 1st-half goals per game2.2York goals scored per game1.3York goals conceded per game66.7%York Over 2.5 rate1.0York 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.2%Both Teams to Score52.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 52.3% for three or more goals and 76.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Chesterfield favoured at 60.5%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Chesterfield to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Chesterfield vs York?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 52.3%. The match finished with 2 goals (2-0), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,322 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
