League TwoPort Vale vs Northampton Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 48.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 72.3% for over 7.5 to 19.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.0%. Head to head on corners, Port Vale are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.2%, with a level count at 10.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.4% | 80.6% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.3%
57.0%
41.9%
61.1%
44.2%
29.5%
Corner handicap
| Port Vale line | Port Vale | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -0.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| +0.5 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.7% | 26.4% |
This season (2026/27)
4.8Port Vale corners won per game4.2Port Vale corners conceded per game5.2Northampton corners won per game2.8Northampton corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Port Vale.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
49.0%Over 9.5 corners57.0%Port Vale over 4.5 corners44.2%Northampton over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Port Vale over 4.5 corners sits at 57.0% and Northampton at 44.2%. This season Port Vale have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Northampton 5.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 49.0% for Port Vale vs Northampton.
Which team will win the corner count in Port Vale vs Northampton?
The model rates Port Vale to win the corner count at 53.2%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Port Vale and Northampton average this season?
Port Vale have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Northampton 5.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
