Chesterfield vs York: model prediction
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
League TwoChesterfield or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time8 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Chesterfield at 60.5%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.3% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.8% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.9% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 50.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 78.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 78.3% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.4% and it landed (11 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.3% and it landed (33 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.8% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 88.2% and it landed.
| Match data | Chesterfield | York |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 2 | 0 |
| Shots | 26 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 8 | 0 |
| Corners | 7 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 12 | 12 |
Final match data.
Win probability · fair 1.65
Top signals
Model read
"60% on Chesterfield is a measurement, not a promise." Few League Two fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Chesterfield carry a 60% win probability against York on 19 September 2026. Our number sits above the market's 38% for Chesterfield. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. As a promoted side, York carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Chesterfield arrive W2 D2 L2, York W3 D2 L1. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
Model vs market
60.5%+22.0%
23.0%-4.4%
16.5%-17.5%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
57.1%66.7%
71.4%83.3%
14.3%16.7%
League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 62.9% | Over 24.5 | 50.4% | Over 26.5 | 38.1% | Over 28.5 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Chesterfield | 57.8% | Most: York | 36.1% | ||||
| Chesterfield Over 13.2 | 45.7% | York Over 13.2 | 30.5% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.2% | Over 7.5 | 55.8% | Over 8.5 | 43.5% | Over 9.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Chesterfield | 54.0% | Most: York | 33.6% | ||||
| Chesterfield Over 4.2 | 46.2% | York Over 4.2 | 31.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.7% | Over 3.5 | 49.6% | Over 4.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Chesterfield | 29.1% | Most: York | 49.8% | ||
| Chesterfield Over 1.8 | 46.5% | York Over 1.8 | 61.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 40.9% |
|---|---|
| York clean sheet | 15.2% |
| Chesterfield win to nil | 34.1% |
| York win to nil | 8.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 60.5% | draw | 23.0% | away | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 83.5% | 12 | 77.0% | X2 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 78.6% | away | 21.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.2% | no | 49.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 41.4% | away | 15.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.6% | away | 8.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.3% | home_by_2 | 18.8% | home_by_3plus | 17.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 11.1% | away_by_2 | 4.1% | away_by_3plus | 1.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.8% | 0-1 | 5.0% | 0-2 | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 1-1 | 11.0% | 1-2 | 4.6% |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.0% | 3-1 | 6.2% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.3% | 4-1 | 2.9% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.1% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.2% | under_0.5 | 6.8% | over_1.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.2% | over_2.5 | 52.3% | under_2.5 | 47.7% |
| over_3.5 | 30.1% | under_3.5 | 69.9% | over_4.5 | 14.7% |
| under_4.5 | 85.3% | over_5.5 | 6.2% | under_5.5 | 93.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 84.8% | under_0.5 | 15.2% | over_1.5 | 56.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.8% | over_2.5 | 29.3% | under_2.5 | 70.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 58.6% | under_0.5 | 41.4% | over_1.5 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.0% | over_2.5 | 6.0% | under_2.5 | 94.0% |
most
| home | 60.5% | draw | 23.0% | away | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 17.4% | away_+2.5 | 82.6% | home_-1.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.8% | home_-0.5 | 60.5% | away_+0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 83.5% | away_-0.5 | 16.5% | home_+1.5 | 94.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.4% | home_+2.5 | 98.7% | away_-2.5 | 1.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.8% | exact_1 | 16.4% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.4% | exact_5 | 8.5% |
| exact_6 | 3.9% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.8% | draw | 36.1% | away | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.6% | under_0.5 | 21.4% | over_1.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.4% | over_2.5 | 20.2% | under_2.5 | 79.8% |
btts
| yes | 28.8% | no | 71.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.4% | exact_1 | 33.0% | exact_2 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.1% | exact_4plus | 7.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.1% | draw | 36.3% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.3% | under_0.5 | 21.7% | over_1.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.8% | over_2.5 | 19.8% | under_2.5 | 80.2% |
btts
| yes | 28.5% | no | 71.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.1% | H/D | 5.5% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.3% | D/D | 13.1% | D/A | 10.7% |
| A/H | 2.5% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 21.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.5% | under_7.5 | 23.5% | over_8.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 34.1% | over_9.5 | 54.4% | under_9.5 | 45.6% |
| over_10.5 | 43.0% | under_10.5 | 57.0% | over_11.5 | 32.6% |
| under_11.5 | 67.4% | over_12.5 | 23.6% | under_12.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.6% | under_3.5 | 24.4% | over_4.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.9% | over_5.5 | 46.2% | under_5.5 | 53.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.8% | under_3.5 | 36.2% | over_4.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 32.2% | under_5.5 | 67.8% |
most
| home | 54.2% | draw | 10.4% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.6% | away_+3.5 | 75.4% | home_-1.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.4% | home_-0.5 | 54.2% | away_+0.5 | 45.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.5% | away_-0.5 | 35.5% | home_+1.5 | 73.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.1% | home_+3.5 | 87.9% | away_-3.5 | 12.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.9% | under_22.5 | 37.1% | over_24.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.7% | over_26.5 | 38.1% | under_26.5 | 61.9% |
| over_28.5 | 27.3% | under_28.5 | 72.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.9% | under_10.5 | 29.1% | over_12.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.9% | over_14.5 | 37.6% | under_14.5 | 62.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.7% | under_10.5 | 43.3% | over_12.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.5% | over_14.5 | 23.5% | under_14.5 | 76.4% |
most
| home | 57.8% | draw | 6.2% | away | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.9% | away_+4.5 | 67.2% | home_-2.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.0% | home_-0.5 | 57.8% | away_+0.5 | 42.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.9% | away_-0.5 | 36.1% | home_+2.5 | 75.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.0% | home_+4.5 | 84.0% | away_-4.5 | 16.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.2% | under_6.5 | 31.8% | over_7.5 | 55.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.2% | over_8.5 | 43.5% | under_8.5 | 56.6% |
| over_9.5 | 32.2% | under_9.5 | 67.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.1% | under_3.5 | 36.9% | over_4.5 | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.8% | over_5.5 | 31.3% | under_5.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.7% | under_3.5 | 51.3% | over_4.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.4% | over_5.5 | 18.7% | under_5.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 54.0% | draw | 12.4% | away | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.5% | away_+2.5 | 70.5% | home_-0.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.0% | home_+0.5 | 66.4% | away_-0.5 | 33.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.7% | away_-2.5 | 14.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.7% | under_2.5 | 29.3% | over_3.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.4% | over_4.5 | 30.4% | under_4.5 | 69.6% |
| over_5.5 | 16.4% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 46.5% | under_1.5 | 53.6% | over_2.5 | 20.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 79.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.7% | under_1.5 | 38.3% | over_2.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.3% |
most
| home | 29.1% | draw | 21.1% | away | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 13.6% | away_+1.5 | 86.4% | home_-0.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.9% | home_+0.5 | 50.2% | away_-0.5 | 49.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.8% | away_-1.5 | 29.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.9% | under_20.5 | 41.2% | over_22.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.1% | over_24.5 | 28.5% | under_24.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 55.8% | under_9.5 | 44.2% | over_11.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.8% | over_13.5 | 16.5% | under_13.5 | 83.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 70.5% | under_9.5 | 29.5% | over_11.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.1% | over_13.5 | 28.9% | under_13.5 | 71.1% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 7.8% | away | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 16.1% | away_+3.5 | 83.9% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.0% | home_+2.5 | 58.8% | away_-2.5 | 41.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.8% | no | 88.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.9% | no | 92.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.2% | no | 95.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).
More: Chesterfield predictions · York predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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