League TwoChesterfield vs York Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 11.2%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.3% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Chesterfield have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, York 2.0 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.3% for over 2.5 and 76.8% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 3-0 | 7.0% |
| 0-0 | 6.8% |
| 3-1 | 6.2% |
| 0-1 | 5.0% |
Score probability grid
| Chesterfield \ York | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Chesterfield goals, columns = York. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.3%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
50.2%Both Teams to Score52.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 52.3% for three or more goals and 76.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Chesterfield favoured at 60.5%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What was the score in Chesterfield vs York?
Chesterfield vs York finished 2-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-0 at 11.3%; it gave the actual 2-0 a 11.2% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More League Two, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
