ChampionshipMillwall vs 
West Ham Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Millwall have averaged 1.6 scored and 2.6 conceded, West Ham 3.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.7% for over 2.5 and 76.4% for at least two goals. Millwall have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, West Ham in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.4% | 85.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.0% | 94.0% |
Team goal lines
84.4%
55.4%
28.5%
58.7%
22.2%
6.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 86.1% | 13.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 31.7% | 68.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.9Millwall goals scored per game1.9Millwall goals conceded per game85.7%Millwall Over 2.5 rate0.9Millwall 1st-half goals per game2.9West Ham goals scored per game1.3West Ham goals conceded per game85.7%West Ham Over 2.5 rate1.3West Ham 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.1%Both Teams to Score51.7%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 51.7% for three or more goals and 76.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Millwall favoured at 59.7%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Millwall to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall vs West Ham?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 51.7% for Millwall vs West Ham.
Will there be a first-half goal in Millwall vs West Ham?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.7%.
How often have Millwall gone over 2.5 recently?
Millwall have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, West Ham in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
