AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Segunda División
BurgosBurgosWLLWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1117:30UK
CastellonCastellonWDLWW

Burgos vs Castellon corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.7%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners46.3%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Burgos.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 70.8% 29.2%
8.5 corners 58.7% 41.3%
9.5 corners 46.3% 53.7%
10.5 corners 34.6% 65.4%
11.5 corners 24.6% 75.4%
12.5 corners 16.6% 83.4%

Who wins the corner count

Burgos
45.7%
Level
11.3%
Castellon
43.0%

Team corners lines

Burgos

Over 3.5
67.0%
Over 4.5
50.2%
Over 5.5
34.8%

Castellon

Over 3.5
65.1%
Over 4.5
48.2%
Over 5.5
32.8%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Burgos's; Castellon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Burgos line Burgos Castellon
-1.5 34.8% 65.2%
-0.5 45.7% 54.3%
+0.5 57.0% 43.0%
+1.5 67.7% 32.3%
BurgosBurgos

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Burgos at home and Castellon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

CastellonCastellon
Statistic
Burgos
Castellon
Corners won per game at this venue
4.0
6.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
4.3
3.8

First-half corners won per game
1.8
2.3

Second-half corners won per game
2.3
2.8

Matches with more corners than the opponent
30.0%
54.5%

Matches with corner data
10
11

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.8% for over 7.5 to 16.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. On the corner count, Burgos are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 45.7%, with a level count at 11.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Burgos over 4.5 corners sits at 50.2% and Castellon at 48.2%. This season Burgos have averaged 4.1 corners won a game and Castellon 5.1.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.3%Over 9.5 corners
45.7%Most corners: Burgos
50.2%Burgos over 4.5 corners
48.2%Castellon over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.3% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderBurgos are the pick to win the corner count at 45.7%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 46.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
BurgosBurgos

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

CastellonCastellon
Statistic
Burgos
Castellon
corners won per game
4.1
5.1

corners conceded per game
5.6
4.0

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Burgos vs Castellon?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 46.3% for Burgos vs Castellon.
Which team will win the corner count in Burgos vs Castellon?
The model rates Burgos to win the corner count at 45.7%, with a level count at 11.3%.
How many corners do Burgos and Castellon average this season?
Burgos have won 4.1 corners a game this season and Castellon 5.1.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Segunda DivisiónBurgos fixtures and statsCastellon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.