ChampionshipBristol City vs Lincoln Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 53.1% and it landed (27 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 53.6% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 53.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.5% for over 22.5 to 29.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. Head to head on shots, Bristol City are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.4%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.9%
56.5%
40.0%
58.2%
40.0%
24.8%
Shot handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| -2.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| -0.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| +0.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.2Bristol City shots per game13.7Bristol City shots faced per game13.2Lincoln shots per game15.3Lincoln shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Bristol City.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
53.1%Over 24.5 shots56.5%Bristol City over 12.5 shots40.0%Lincoln over 12.5 shots53.6%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Bristol City over 12.5 shots sits at 56.5% and Lincoln at 40.0%. This season Bristol City have averaged 13.2 shots a game and Lincoln 13.2.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 53.1% for Bristol City vs Lincoln.
Which team will have more shots in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol City to take more shots at 58.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
