ChampionshipBristol City vs Lincoln Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 51.7% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 70.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 63.6% and it missed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Bristol City have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, Lincoln 0.8 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.7% for over 2.5 and 76.4% for at least two goals. Bristol City have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Lincoln in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.3% | 85.7% |
| 5.5 goals | 6.0% | 94.0% |
Team goal lines
82.8%
52.5%
25.9%
62.6%
25.8%
7.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.9% | 86.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Bristol City goals scored per game1.8Bristol City goals conceded per game83.3%Bristol City Over 2.5 rate0.5Bristol City 1st-half goals per game0.8Lincoln goals scored per game1.0Lincoln goals conceded per game33.3%Lincoln Over 2.5 rate0.3Lincoln 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
52.3%Both Teams to Score51.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 51.7% for three or more goals and 76.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Bristol City favoured at 55.1%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Bristol City to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 51.7%. The match finished with 1 goals (0-1), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
