ChampionshipBristol City vs Lincoln Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 51.7% and it missed (7 in the match). We called No at 89.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 48.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.6% for over 2.5 to 15.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Head to head on cards, Lincoln are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.2%, with a level count at 20.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
42.8%
18.0%
63.0%
36.0%
Card handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| -0.5 | 26.1% | 74.0% |
| +0.5 | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| +1.5 | 68.1% | 32.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.9% | 71.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Bristol City cards per game11.7Bristol City fouls per game2.2Lincoln cards per game13.2Lincoln fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol City vs Lincoln. It tips Lincoln for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.3%Over 3.5 cards10.6%Any red card42.8%Bristol City over 1.5 cards63.0%Lincoln over 1.5 cards43.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Bristol City over 1.5 cards sits at 42.8% and Lincoln at 63.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.6% (Bristol City 8.6%, Lincoln 2.2%). This season Bristol City have averaged 1.5 cards a game and Lincoln 2.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.3% for Bristol City vs Lincoln.
Will there be a red card in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated Lincoln to pick up more cards at 53.2%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
