ChampionshipBristol City vs Lincoln Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 60.1% and it landed (17 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 58.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 81.0% for over 7.5 to 27.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. On the corner count, Bristol City are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.6%, with a level count at 10.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 81.0% | 19.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 10.5 corners | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
80.0%
66.4%
51.6%
66.1%
49.3%
33.9%
Corner handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| -1.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| -0.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| +0.5 | 66.7% | 33.3% |
This season (2026/27)
4.5Bristol City corners won per game5.8Bristol City corners conceded per game4.5Lincoln corners won per game8.5Lincoln corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Bristol City.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
60.1%Over 9.5 corners66.4%Bristol City over 4.5 corners49.3%Lincoln over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Bristol City over 4.5 corners sits at 66.4% and Lincoln at 49.3%. This season Bristol City have averaged 4.5 corners won a game and Lincoln 4.5.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 60.1% for Bristol City vs Lincoln.
Which team will win the corner count in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol City to win the corner count at 56.6%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Bristol City and Lincoln average this season?
Bristol City have won 4.5 corners a game this season and Lincoln 4.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 1,505 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Corners actually happened 62.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
