ChampionshipBristol City vs Lincoln Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Bristol City or Draw (79.6%), did not land.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 79.6%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Bristol City are favoured at 55.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bristol City by 1 | 23.8% |
| Bristol City by 2 | 17.1% |
| Bristol City by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Lincoln by 1 | 13.1% |
| Lincoln by 2 | 5.3% |
| Lincoln by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% |
Goal handicap
| Bristol City line | Bristol City | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| -1.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| -0.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| +0.5 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Bristol City goals scored per game1.8Bristol City goals conceded per game0.8Lincoln goals scored per game1.0Lincoln goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Bristol City or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
52.3%Both Teams to Score51.7%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Bristol City are favoured at 55.1%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Bristol City vs Lincoln?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 79.6%; it did not land, final score 0-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
