AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
BournemouthBournemouthDDDLL
Full time2-0Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK13°C · Cloudy
SunderlandSunderlandWDLLL

Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.6%

Result

Bournemouth2-0Sunderland
5 yellow cardsBournemouth 3, Sunderland 2
1 red cardsBournemouth 0, Sunderland 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 56.4% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 82.7% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Craig Pawson

Recorded match referee.

Craig Pawson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 307 4
Goals 2.67 Not available
Yellow cards 3.61 Not available
Red cards 0.15 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 22.7 Not available
Both teams scored 48% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 50% Not available
Home wins 41% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
18 Oct 2026 Bournemouth vs Sunderland 2-0 2 No 5 1 8 23
10 Oct 2026 Aston Villa vs Brentford 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 4 31
5 Sep 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham 0-0 0 No 4 0 12 36
30 Aug 2026 Manchester United vs Ipswich 5-2 7 Yes 4 0 12 19
24 May 2026 Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 9 18
9 May 2026 Liverpool vs Chelsea 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 7 34
2 May 2026 Brentford vs West Ham 3-0 3 No 4 0 8 20
21 Apr 2026 Brighton vs Chelsea 3-0 3 No 2 0 11 21
3 Mar 2026 Bournemouth vs Brentford 0-0 0 No 3 0 7 19
27 Feb 2026 Wolves vs Aston Villa 2-0 2 No 6 0 5 32

Craig Pawson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bournemouth vs Sunderland. It tips Sunderland for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.0% 24.0%
3.5 cards 56.4% 43.6%
4.5 cards 36.8% 63.2%
5.5 cards 21.3% 78.7%

Who picks up more cards

Bournemouth
36.0%
Level
20.7%
Sunderland
43.4%

Team cards lines

Bournemouth

Over 1.5
56.5%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Sunderland

Over 1.5
61.8%
Over 2.5
34.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bournemouth's; Sunderland gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bournemouth line Bournemouth Sunderland
-1.5 19.0% 81.0%
-0.5 36.0% 64.0%
+0.5 56.6% 43.4%
+1.5 75.3% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card17.3%
Bournemouth red card5.4%
Sunderland red card12.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.6% 29.4%
22.5 fouls 55.4% 44.6%
24.5 fouls 39.8% 60.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Bournemouth J Gillett 2 4.5 3.5
Sunderland T Bramall 2 3.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BournemouthBournemouth

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Bournemouth at home and Sunderland away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SunderlandSunderland
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Cards per game at this venue
3.0
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.7
1.0

Yellow cards per game
3.0
2.0

Matches with card data
6
6
Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 56.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.0% for over 2.5 to 21.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.4%. Between the two sides, Sunderland are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.4%, with a level count at 20.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Bournemouth over 1.5 cards sits at 56.5% and Sunderland at 61.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Bournemouth 5.4%, Sunderland 12.7%). Bournemouth’s most frequent referee this season, J Gillett, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Bournemouth have averaged 3.0 cards a game and Sunderland 2.2.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

56.4%Over 3.5 cards
17.3%Any red card
43.4%Most cards: Sunderland
56.5%Bournemouth over 1.5 cards
61.8%Sunderland over 1.5 cards
55.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Gillett, Bournemouth’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianSunderland are the pick to collect more cards at 43.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
BournemouthBournemouth

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SunderlandSunderland
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
cards per game
3.0
2.2

fouls per game
12.5
12.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 56.4% for Bournemouth vs Sunderland.
Will there be a red card in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Before kickoff, the model rated Sunderland to pick up more cards at 43.4%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueBournemouth fixtures and statsSunderland fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.