AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
BournemouthBournemouthDDDLL
Full time2-0Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1014:00UK13°C · Cloudy
SunderlandSunderlandWDLLL

Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined52.3%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined47.7%

Result

Bournemouth2-0Sunderland
Shots in this match: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
This match Bournemouth Sunderland Total
Shots 29 3 32
Shots on target 6 0 6
1st-half shots 14 1 15
2nd-half shots 15 2 17
1st-half on target 4 0 4
2nd-half on target 2 0 2
Over 24.5Over 7.5

We called Over 24.5 at 52.3% and it landed (32 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 61.1% and it missed (6 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots52.3%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Bournemouth.

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 63.9% 36.1%
24.5 shots 52.3% 47.7%
26.5 shots 40.9% 59.1%
28.5 shots 30.4% 69.6%

Who takes more shots

Bournemouth
62.9%
Level
5.4%
Sunderland
31.7%

Team shots lines

Bournemouth

Over 10.5
73.7%
Over 12.5
58.9%
Over 14.5
43.8%

Sunderland

Over 10.5
52.9%
Over 12.5
36.2%
Over 14.5
22.7%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 72.7% 27.3%
7.5 shots on target 61.1% 38.9%
8.5 shots on target 49.1% 50.9%
9.5 shots on target 37.7% 62.3%

Who has more on target

Bournemouth
54.0%
Level
11.9%
Sunderland
34.1%

Team shots on target lines

Bournemouth

Over 3.5
66.3%
Over 4.5
50.0%
Over 5.5
35.0%

Sunderland

Over 3.5
52.7%
Over 4.5
35.5%
Over 5.5
22.0%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bournemouth's; Sunderland gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bournemouth line Bournemouth Sunderland
-4.5 39.6% 60.4%
-2.5 51.3% 48.7%
-0.5 62.9% 37.1%
+0.5 68.3% 31.7%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Bournemouth player shots
Bournemouth 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
David Brooks 31.6% 32.3% 2.98
Alvaro Rodríguez 51.2% 44.0% 2.90
Justin Kluivert 46.4% 48.7% 2.21
Evanilson 62.5% 54.0% 2.43
Marcus Tavernier 58.4% 49.2% 2.38
Sunderland player shots
Sunderland 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Wilson Isidor 14.1% 21.1% 3.38
Malick Fofana 38.2% 47.8% 2.12
Brian Brobbey 37.5% 44.4% 1.80
Chemsdine Talbi 21.4% 26.6% 1.42
Nilson Angulo 18.6% 25.0% 1.20

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Bournemouth in their home matches and Sunderland in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Bournemouth's home matches and Sunderland's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

BournemouthBournemouth

Recorded 2026/27

SunderlandSunderland
This season
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Shots per game
12.8
13.0

Shots faced per game
10.7
12.2

Shots on target per game
5.0
4.7

On target faced per game
4.3
3.3

Matches
6
6
Bournemouth at home, Sunderland away
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Shots per game
15.3
14.0

Shots faced per game
11.0
12.7

Shots on target per game
5.7
6.0

On target faced per game
4.0
3.7

Matches
3
3
By half, this season
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
1st-half shots
5.7
5.0

2nd-half shots
7.2
8.0

Matches
6
6
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
1st-half shots
5.0
5.3

2nd-half shots
10.3
8.7

Matches
3
3
Last six league matches
Statistic
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Shots per game
12.8
13.0

Shots faced per game
10.7
12.2

1st-half shots
5.7
5.0

2nd-half shots
7.2
8.0

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 12.4 in the 1st half, 15.4 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.9% for over 22.5 to 30.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. On the shot count, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.9%, with a level count at 5.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Bournemouth over 12.5 shots sits at 58.9% and Sunderland at 36.2%. This season Bournemouth have averaged 12.8 shots a game and Sunderland 13.0. Bournemouth take 5.7 shots before half-time and 7.2 after, Sunderland 5.0 and 8.0.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.3%Over 24.5 shots
62.9%Most shots: Bournemouth
58.9%Bournemouth over 12.5 shots
36.2%Sunderland over 12.5 shots
61.1%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.3% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderBournemouth are the pick to have more shots at 62.9%, the side controlling territory usually gets the attempts.
The Clock WatcherBournemouth average 5.7 shots in the first half and 7.2 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 52.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 52.3% for Bournemouth vs Sunderland.
Which team will have more shots in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bournemouth to take more shots at 62.9%.
How many shots do Sunderland take away from home?
Sunderland have taken 14.0 shots per game and faced 12.7 across 3 recorded away league matches this season.
Do Bournemouth shoot more in the first or second half?
Bournemouth average 5.7 shots before half-time and 7.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueBournemouth fixtures and statsSunderland fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.