Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Stuttgart Shots
Result
Settled, final score 5-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 62.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 73.8% for over 22.5 to 38.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.7%. On the shot count, Bayern Munich are the model’s pick to have more shots at 71.2%, with a level count at 5.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 38.8% | 61.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
83.9%
71.3%
56.3%
54.7%
36.7%
22.3%
Shot handicap
| Bayern Munich line | Bayern Munich | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| -2.5 | 60.1% | 40.0% |
| -0.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| +0.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 63.5% | 36.5% |
This season (2025/26)
19.2Bayern Munich shots per game15.2Stuttgart shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Bayern Munich.
In-depth analysis
62.7%Over 24.5 shots71.3%Bayern Munich over 12.5 shots36.7%Stuttgart over 12.5 shots82.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Bayern Munich over 12.5 shots sits at 71.3% and Stuttgart at 36.7%. This season Bayern Munich have averaged 19.2 shots a game and Stuttgart 15.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 62.7% for Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart.
Which team will have more shots in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bayern Munich to take more shots at 71.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.