Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Stuttgart Correct Score
Result
Final score 5-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 3.3%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 8.0% at other, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Bayern Munich have averaged 3.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, Stuttgart 2.2 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 80.2% for over 2.5 and 93.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| other | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 3-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% |
| 1-1 | 5.8% |
| 4-1 | 5.7% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% |
| 2-2 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Bayern Munich \ Stuttgart | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
Rows = Bayern Munich goals, columns = Stuttgart. The most likely scoreline is other at 8.0%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
71.0%Both Teams to Score80.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 80.2% for three or more goals and 93.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Bayern Munich favoured at 73.6%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart finished 5-1. The model's most likely scoreline was other at 8.0%; it gave the actual 5-1 a 3.3% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.