Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Stuttgart Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Bayern Munich or Draw (87.8%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Draw at 87.8%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Bayern Munich are favoured at 73.6%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bayern Munich by 1 | 19.2% |
| Bayern Munich by 2 | 18.7% |
| Bayern Munich by 3+ | 30.8% |
| Stuttgart by 1 | 9.0% |
| Stuttgart by 2 | 4.2% |
| Stuttgart by 3+ | 2.1% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
Goal handicap
| Bayern Munich line | Bayern Munich | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
| -1.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| +0.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
This season (2025/26)
3.6Bayern Munich goals scored per game1.1Bayern Munich goals conceded per game2.1Stuttgart goals scored per game1.4Stuttgart goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Bayern Munich or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
71.0%Both Teams to Score80.2%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Bayern Munich are favoured at 73.6%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 87.8%; it landed, final score 5-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,045 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.