Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Stuttgart Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals (xG)
Recent xG created & conceded (per game)
3.04
1.91
2.35
2.13
Bayern Munich have created 3.04 xG and scored 3.67 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Stuttgart have created 2.35 xG and scored 2.50 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.
Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Match outlook
The model leans Bayern Munich to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| btts_specialist v1.0 | BTTS |
| sot_specialist v1.0 | sot_over_6.5 |
More Bundesliga, Expected Goals (xG)
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.