Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart: model prediction
BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Bayern Munich or draw
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Bayern Munich at 73.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 80.2% and it landed (6 goals). We called Yes at 71.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"74% on Bayern Munich is a measurement, not a promise." Bayern Munich go into this Bundesliga meeting with Stuttgart on 28 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 74%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Bayern Munich higher (79%) than our model does. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 80% with both teams to score at 71%. Recent form reads W5 D1 L0 for Bayern Munich against W2 D3 L1 for Stuttgart. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Bayern Munich, 0 draws and 1 for Stuttgart at 4.6 goals per match. For shots markets, Harry Kane is the obvious watch at 2.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
73.6%-5.6%
14.2%+1.7%
12.2%+3.9%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08)
Goals markets
High probability
High probability
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
Bayern Munich
Stuttgart94.1%73.5%
64.7%61.8%
35.3%32.4%
League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 1.56
@ 1.17
@ 1.12
@ 3.39
@ 1.72
@ 2.03
@ 2.93
@ 1.39
@ 1.28
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 89.4% | Over 7.5 | 82.4% | Over 8.5 | 73.7% | Over 9.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bayern Munich | 68.4% | Most: Stuttgart | 22.5% | ||||
| Bayern Munich Over 4.2 | 75.4% | Stuttgart Over 4.2 | 43.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | Over 3.5 | 45.0% | Over 4.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bayern Munich | 35.7% | Most: Stuttgart | 41.8% | ||
| Bayern Munich Over 1.8 | 49.0% | Stuttgart Over 1.8 | 53.5% |
Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 4.43 | 2.24 | 1.19 | 85.3% | 89.2% | 63.9% |
| Nicolas Jackson | 3.45 | 1.82 | 0.73 | 58.2% | 49.2% | 29.5% |
| Michael Olise | 3.66 | 1.62 | 0.53 | 72.0% | 78.2% | 34.1% |
| Leroy Sané | 3.68 | 1.59 | 0.6 | 61.9% | 65.3% | 30.5% |
| Lennart Karl | 2.98 | 1.49 | 0.35 | 55.4% | 48.0% | 17.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Bayern Munich clean sheet | 23.2% |
|---|---|
| Stuttgart clean sheet | 5.4% |
| Bayern Munich win to nil | 21.6% |
| Stuttgart win to nil | 3.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 68.6% | draw | 16.1% | away | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.7% | 12 | 83.9% | X2 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 81.8% | away | 18.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 71.0% | no | 29.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.2% | away | 5.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.5% | away | 3.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.2% | home_by_2 | 18.7% | home_by_3plus | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.0% | away_by_2 | 4.2% | away_by_3plus | 2.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 1.6% | 0-1 | 1.6% | 0-2 | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.6% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 3.7% | 1-1 | 5.8% | 1-2 | 3.8% |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% | 2-1 | 8.0% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% | 3-1 | 7.7% | 3-2 | 5.3% |
| 3-3 | 2.5% | 3-4 | 0.9% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 4.1% | 4-1 | 5.7% | 4-2 | 3.9% |
| 4-3 | 1.8% | 4-4 | 0.6% | 4-5 | 0.2% |
| 5-0 | 2.4% | 5-1 | 3.3% | 5-2 | 2.3% |
| 5-3 | 1.1% | 5-4 | 0.4% | 5-5 | 0.1% |
| other | 8.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 8.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 98.4% | under_0.5 | 1.6% | over_1.5 | 93.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 7.0% | over_2.5 | 80.2% | under_2.5 | 19.8% |
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 43.0% |
| under_4.5 | 57.0% | over_5.5 | 26.4% | under_5.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.4% | even | 50.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 94.5% | under_0.5 | 5.5% | over_1.5 | 78.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.3% | over_2.5 | 55.8% | under_2.5 | 44.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.9% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.9% | over_2.5 | 16.2% | under_2.5 | 83.8% |
most
| home | 68.6% | draw | 16.1% | away | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 30.8% | away_+2.5 | 69.2% | home_-1.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.6% | home_-0.5 | 68.6% | away_+0.5 | 31.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.7% | away_-0.5 | 15.3% | home_+1.5 | 93.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.3% | home_+2.5 | 97.9% | away_-2.5 | 2.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 1.6% | exact_1 | 5.3% | exact_2 | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 18.0% | exact_4 | 19.3% | exact_5 | 16.6% |
| exact_6 | 11.9% | exact_7plus | 14.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.0% | draw | 29.1% | away | 20.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 86.5% | under_0.5 | 13.5% | over_1.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 40.5% | over_2.5 | 32.4% | under_2.5 | 67.6% |
btts
| yes | 37.1% | no | 62.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 13.5% | exact_1 | 27.0% | exact_2 | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 18.1% | exact_4plus | 14.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 64.9% | draw | 22.0% | away | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 71.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.0% | over_2.5 | 45.3% | under_2.5 | 54.7% |
btts
| yes | 40.9% | no | 59.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 46.0% | H/D | 3.0% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.9% | D/D | 6.4% | D/A | 3.8% |
| A/H | 6.7% | A/D | 5.0% | A/A | 9.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.9% | under_7.5 | 24.2% | over_8.5 | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.1% | over_9.5 | 53.0% | under_9.5 | 47.0% |
| over_10.5 | 41.4% | under_10.5 | 58.6% | over_11.5 | 30.8% |
| under_11.5 | 69.2% | over_12.5 | 21.9% | under_12.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.9% | under_3.5 | 21.1% | over_4.5 | 65.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.8% | over_5.5 | 50.6% | under_5.5 | 49.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.3% | under_3.5 | 42.7% | over_4.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.0% | over_5.5 | 25.7% | under_5.5 | 74.3% |
most
| home | 61.6% | draw | 9.8% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.6% | away_+3.5 | 69.4% | home_-1.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.0% | home_-0.5 | 61.6% | away_+0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% | home_+1.5 | 79.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.1% | home_+3.5 | 91.5% | away_-3.5 | 8.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 73.8% | under_22.5 | 26.2% | over_24.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 37.3% | over_26.5 | 50.7% | under_26.5 | 49.3% |
| over_28.5 | 38.8% | under_28.5 | 61.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 83.9% | under_10.5 | 16.1% | over_12.5 | 71.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 28.7% | over_14.5 | 56.3% | under_14.5 | 43.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 54.7% | under_10.5 | 45.4% | over_12.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.3% | over_14.5 | 22.3% | under_14.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 71.2% | draw | 5.0% | away | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 48.0% | away_+4.5 | 52.0% | home_-2.5 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 40.0% | home_-0.5 | 71.2% | away_+0.5 | 28.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 76.2% | away_-0.5 | 23.8% | home_+2.5 | 84.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 15.5% | home_+4.5 | 90.6% | away_-4.5 | 9.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 89.4% | under_6.5 | 10.6% | over_7.5 | 82.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 17.5% | over_8.5 | 73.7% | under_8.5 | 26.4% |
| over_9.5 | 63.5% | under_9.5 | 36.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 86.3% | under_3.5 | 13.7% | over_4.5 | 75.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 24.6% | over_5.5 | 62.3% | under_5.5 | 37.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.9% | under_3.5 | 39.1% | over_4.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.7% | over_5.5 | 28.2% | under_5.5 | 71.8% |
most
| home | 68.4% | draw | 9.2% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 47.1% | away_+2.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 31.6% | home_+0.5 | 77.5% | away_-0.5 | 22.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.5% | away_-2.5 | 9.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 66.8% | under_2.5 | 33.2% | over_3.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 55.0% | over_4.5 | 26.3% | under_4.5 | 73.7% |
| over_5.5 | 13.4% | under_5.5 | 86.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.0% | under_1.5 | 51.0% | over_2.5 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 53.5% | under_1.5 | 46.5% | over_2.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 35.7% | draw | 22.4% | away | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.7% | away_+1.5 | 82.3% | home_-0.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.3% | home_+0.5 | 58.2% | away_-0.5 | 41.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.8% | away_-1.5 | 22.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 41.3% | under_20.5 | 58.7% | over_22.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 70.1% | over_24.5 | 20.5% | under_24.5 | 79.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 51.3% | under_9.5 | 48.7% | over_11.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.5% | over_13.5 | 21.3% | under_13.5 | 78.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 45.1% | under_9.5 | 54.9% | over_11.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 71.3% | over_13.5 | 16.7% | under_13.5 | 83.3% |
most
| home | 51.0% | draw | 6.6% | away | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 31.8% | away_+3.5 | 68.2% | home_-0.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.0% | home_+2.5 | 70.1% | away_-2.5 | 29.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.4% | no | 84.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Bayern Munich predictions · Stuttgart predictions · Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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