Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin prediction & probabilities (2026-09-18)

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Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 10 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Bayern Munich

DWWWD

Fri, 18 Sep 202619:30UK
Union Berlin

DWWDL

Model’s top convictions

92%

Bayern Munich or draw

92%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Bayern MunichWin probability
81.9%
Top 3 convictions

Bayern Munich or draw91.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals91.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 2.5 goals77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30

Model read

▾

"Bayern Munich or Union Berlin? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Bayern Munich go into this Bundesliga meeting with Union Berlin on 18 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 82%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 77% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. The run in: Bayern Munich arrive W4 D2 L0, Union Berlin W2 D2 L2. For shots markets, Harry Kane is the obvious watch at 2.2 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 3 wins for Bayern Munich, 2 draws and 0 for Union Berlin over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.1%@ 2.32
Over 11.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97
Medium risk

Both teams to score58.1%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners53.3%@ 1.88
Random finds

other correct score10.3%@ 9.70
3-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.45
2-0 correct score8.3%@ 12.00

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bayern Munich

81.9%

Draw

9.9%

Union Berlin

8.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.591.6%

High probability

Over 2.577.2%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes58.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.3%

Good chance

Over 10.543.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersBayern Munich65.0%Union Berlin25.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.561.8%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.9%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Bayern Munich17.5 taken12.3 faced
Union Berlin12.5 taken14.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Bayern Munich (2 games)

6.5 / 11.5

Union Berlin (2 games)

2.0 / 10.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.591.6%2.577.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.577.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Bayern MunichDWWWD
Union BerlinDWWDL

Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 3 · 2 draws · Union Berlin 0 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-03-21Bayern Munich 4-0 Union Berlin
2025-11-08Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern Munich
2025-03-15Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern Munich
2024-11-02Bayern Munich 3-0 Union Berlin
2024-04-20Union Berlin 1-5 Bayern Munich

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Bayern MunichUnion Berlin
League position#6 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-00-1-1
Current streakD1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Harry KaneBayern Munich · key player
To score62.6%

@ 1.60

1+ on target84.9%

@ 1.18

2+ shots88.9%

@ 1.12

Shots/90 4.43SoT/90 2.23Goals/90 1.16
Tim SkarkeUnion Berlin · key player
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target25.3%

@ 3.95

2+ shots14.0%

@ 7.14

Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.11
Michael OliseBayern Munich · in form
To score34.5%

@ 2.90

1+ on target72.4%

@ 1.38

2+ shots78.7%

@ 1.27

Shots/90 3.71SoT/90 1.64Goals/90 0.54
Woo-Yeong JeongUnion Berlin · in form
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target25.0%

@ 4.00

2+ shots23.5%

@ 4.26

Shots/90 1.7SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.25
Lennart KarlBayern Munich · in form
To score16.4%

@ 6.10

1+ on target54.5%

@ 1.83

2+ shots45.5%

@ 2.20

Shots/90 2.91SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.34
Tom RotheUnion Berlin · in form
To score9.8%

@ 10.20

1+ on target26.6%

@ 3.76

2+ shots22.6%

@ 4.42

Shots/90 1.39SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bayern Munich win1.25
Draw8.18
Union Berlin win13.30
Both teams to score1.72

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.09
Over 2.5 goals1.29
Over 3.5 goals1.72
Over 4.5 goals2.58
Bayern Munich most1.25
Union Berlin most13.30

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.49
Over 9.5 corners1.81
Over 10.5 corners2.30
Bayern Munich most1.53
Union Berlin most3.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.40
Over 5.5 cards6.39
Bayern Munich most2.87
Union Berlin most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.32
Over 8.5 SoT1.53
Over 9.5 SoT1.85
Bayern Munich most1.36
Union Berlin most5.70

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.62
Over 26.5 shots2.01
Over 28.5 shots2.64
Bayern Munich most1.39
Union Berlin most4.33

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.32
Over 22.5 fouls3.19
Over 24.5 fouls4.63
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.1% Over 24.5 61.8% Over 26.5 49.8% Over 28.5 37.9%
Most: Bayern Munich 72.0% Most: Union Berlin 23.1%
Bayern Munich Over 13.2 63.9% Union Berlin Over 13.2 27.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.5% Over 7.5 75.6% Over 8.5 65.2% Over 9.5 54.0%
Most: Bayern Munich 73.8% Most: Union Berlin 17.6%
Bayern Munich Over 4.2 73.1% Union Berlin Over 4.2 31.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.8% Over 3.5 48.6% Over 4.5 29.4%
Most: Bayern Munich 34.9% Most: Union Berlin 43.3%
Bayern Munich Over 1.8 50.6% Union Berlin Over 1.8 56.8%

Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Harry Kane 4.43 2.23 1.16 84.9% 88.9% 62.6%
Michael Olise 3.71 1.64 0.54 72.4% 78.7% 34.5%
Lennart Karl 2.91 1.49 0.34 54.5% 45.5% 16.4%
Jamal Musiala 3.68 1.45 0.54 62.1% 70.5% 30.4%
Luis Díaz 2.97 1.21 0.48 62.2% 68.8% 32.0%

Union Berlin: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Skarke 1.9 0.85 0.11 25.3% 14.0% 3.7%
Woo-Yeong Jeong 1.7 0.53 0.25 25.0% 23.5% 12.7%
Tom Rothe 1.39 0.48 0.16 26.6% 22.6% 9.8%
Livan Burcu 2.24 0.37 0.12 13.8% 22.7% 4.7%
Andras Schafer 1.13 0.34 0.09 18.6% 15.0% 5.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Bayern Munich clean sheet 35.4%
Union Berlin clean sheet 4.4%
Bayern Munich win to nil 33.4%
Union Berlin win to nil 2.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 80.3% draw 12.2% away 7.5%
double_chance
1X 92.5% 12 87.8% X2 19.8%
dnb
home 91.4% away 8.6%
btts
yes 58.1% no 41.9%
clean_sheet
home 39.5% away 4.4%
win_to_nil
home 37.6% away 2.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.7% home_by_2 20.1% home_by_3plus 42.5%
away_by_1 5.1% away_by_2 1.8% away_by_3plus 0.6%
correct_score
0-0 2.0% 0-1 1.4% 0-2 0.8%
0-3 0.2% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 5.1% 1-1 5.2% 1-2 2.3%
1-3 0.7% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 8.3% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.1% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 8.7% 3-1 8.1% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 6.9% 4-1 6.4% 4-2 3.0%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 4.4% 5-1 4.1% 5-2 1.9%
5-3 0.6% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 10.3%
likeliest_score
h 300.0% a 0.0% p 8.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 98.0% under_0.5 2.0% over_1.5 91.6%
under_1.5 8.4% over_2.5 77.3% under_2.5 22.8%
over_3.5 58.2% under_3.5 41.8% over_4.5 38.8%
under_4.5 61.2% over_5.5 23.0% under_5.5 77.1%
odd_even
odd 49.5% even 50.5%
team_home
over_0.5 95.6% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 82.0%
under_1.5 18.0% over_2.5 60.9% under_2.5 39.1%
team_away
over_0.5 60.5% under_0.5 39.5% over_1.5 23.8%
under_1.5 76.2% over_2.5 6.8% under_2.5 93.2%
most
home 80.3% draw 12.2% away 7.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 42.5% away_+2.5 57.5% home_-1.5 62.6%
away_+1.5 37.4% home_-0.5 80.3% away_+0.5 19.7%
home_+0.5 92.5% away_-0.5 7.5% home_+1.5 97.6%
away_-1.5 2.4% home_+2.5 99.4% away_-2.5 0.6%
total_exact
exact_0 2.0% exact_1 6.5% exact_2 14.3%
exact_3 19.1% exact_4 19.4% exact_5 15.9%
exact_6 10.8% exact_7plus 12.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 68.9% draw 23.4% away 7.8%
total
over_0.5 85.9% under_0.5 14.1% over_1.5 58.2%
under_1.5 41.8% over_2.5 31.2% under_2.5 68.9%
btts
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
total_exact
exact_0 14.1% exact_1 27.7% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 17.6% exact_4plus 13.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 69.9% draw 20.4% away 9.7%
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 8.9% over_1.5 69.5%
under_1.5 30.5% over_2.5 43.5% under_2.5 56.5%
btts
yes 35.1% no 64.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 65.5% H/D 2.7% H/A 0.7%
D/H 16.3% D/D 4.8% D/A 2.3%
A/H 3.1% A/D 2.0% A/A 2.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.6% under_7.5 22.4% over_8.5 66.9%
under_8.5 33.1% over_9.5 55.2% under_9.5 44.8%
over_10.5 43.5% under_10.5 56.6% over_11.5 32.6%
under_11.5 67.4% over_12.5 23.4% under_12.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 81.6% under_3.5 18.4% over_4.5 68.8%
under_4.5 31.2% over_5.5 54.5% under_5.5 45.5%
team_away
over_3.5 55.8% under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 38.3%
under_4.5 61.7% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 65.2% draw 9.4% away 25.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 34.1% away_+3.5 65.9% home_-1.5 54.8%
away_+1.5 45.2% home_-0.5 65.2% away_+0.5 34.8%
home_+0.5 74.5% away_-0.5 25.5% home_+1.5 82.4%
away_-1.5 17.6% home_+3.5 92.9% away_-3.5 7.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.1% under_22.5 26.9% over_24.5 61.8%
under_24.5 38.2% over_26.5 49.8% under_26.5 50.2%
over_28.5 37.9% under_28.5 62.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 83.9% under_10.5 16.1% over_12.5 71.2%
under_12.5 28.8% over_14.5 56.3% under_14.5 43.8%
team_away
over_10.5 53.3% under_10.5 46.7% over_12.5 35.4%
under_12.5 64.6% over_14.5 21.2% under_14.5 78.8%
most
home 72.0% draw 4.9% away 23.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 48.8% away_+4.5 51.2% home_-2.5 60.9%
away_+2.5 39.1% home_-0.5 72.0% away_+0.5 28.0%
home_+0.5 76.9% away_-0.5 23.1% home_+2.5 85.1%
away_-2.5 14.9% home_+4.5 91.1% away_-4.5 8.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.5% under_6.5 15.5% over_7.5 75.6%
under_7.5 24.4% over_8.5 65.2% under_8.5 34.8%
over_9.5 54.0% under_9.5 46.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 84.7% under_3.5 15.3% over_4.5 73.1%
under_4.5 27.0% over_5.5 59.4% under_5.5 40.6%
team_away
over_3.5 48.6% under_3.5 51.4% over_4.5 31.1%
under_4.5 69.0% over_5.5 18.0% under_5.5 82.0%
most
home 73.8% draw 8.7% away 17.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 52.1% away_+2.5 47.9% home_-0.5 73.8%
away_+0.5 26.2% home_+0.5 82.5% away_-0.5 17.5%
home_+2.5 93.6% away_-2.5 6.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.8% under_2.5 30.2% over_3.5 48.6%
under_3.5 51.4% over_4.5 29.4% under_4.5 70.6%
over_5.5 15.6% under_5.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.6% under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.2%
under_2.5 75.8%
team_away
over_1.5 56.8% under_1.5 43.2% over_2.5 29.8%
under_2.5 70.2%
most
home 34.9% draw 21.8% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.5% away_+1.5 82.5% home_-0.5 34.9%
away_+0.5 65.1% home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+1.5 76.3% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 43.1% under_20.5 57.0% over_22.5 31.3%
under_22.5 68.7% over_24.5 21.6% under_24.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 43.5% under_9.5 56.5% over_11.5 27.0%
under_11.5 73.0% over_13.5 15.3% under_13.5 84.8%
team_away
over_9.5 55.6% under_9.5 44.4% over_11.5 38.4%
under_11.5 61.6% over_13.5 24.3% under_13.5 75.7%
most
home 38.3% draw 6.6% away 55.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.1% away_+3.5 78.9% home_-0.5 38.3%
away_+0.5 61.7% home_+2.5 58.2% away_-2.5 41.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.0% no 87.0%
home
yes 6.1% no 93.9%
away
yes 7.4% no 92.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bayern Munich predictions · Union Berlin predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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