Stuttgart vs Dortmund prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Stuttgart vs Dortmund: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 14 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Stuttgart

DWDLW

Sat, 19 Sep 202617:30UK20°C · Clear
Dortmund

LWWWW

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Both teams to score

67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
StuttgartWin probability
40.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals86.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Both teams to score67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Over 2.5 goals66.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.49

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Stuttgart and Dortmund on 19 September 2026: Stuttgart nose ahead at 40%. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 67% with both teams to score at 68%. For shots markets, Deniz Undav is the obvious watch at 1.6 on target per 90 in recent data. Form guide over the last six: Stuttgart W2 D3 L1, Dortmund W5 D0 L1. The recent series reads 3 wins for Stuttgart, 1 draws and 1 for Dortmund over 5 games, 3.6 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.7%@ 2.46
Dortmund win38.1%@ 2.63
Over 11.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Stuttgart or draw61.9%@ 1.61
Over 8.5 corners61.7%@ 1.62
Draw or Dortmund59.8%@ 1.67
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.08
2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.17
1-2 correct score8.1%@ 12.41

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Stuttgart

40.2%

Draw

21.7%

Dortmund

38.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.3%

High probability

Over 2.566.9%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes67.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.0%

Good chance

Over 10.540.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersStuttgart61.0%Dortmund28.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.559.2%

Good chance

Over 26.547.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.5%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Stuttgart16.7 taken15.3 faced
Dortmund14.0 taken10.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Stuttgart (2 games)

7.5 / 9.5

Dortmund (2 games)

9.0 / 6.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.3%2.566.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

StuttgartDWDLW
DortmundLWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Stuttgart 3 · 1 draws · Dortmund 1 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-04-04Stuttgart 0-2 Dortmund
2025-11-22Dortmund 3-3 Stuttgart
2025-02-08Dortmund 1-2 Stuttgart
2024-09-22Stuttgart 5-1 Dortmund
2024-04-06Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

StuttgartDortmund
League position#9 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-12-0-0
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Deniz UndavStuttgart · key player
To score38.9%

@ 2.57

1+ on target71.6%

@ 1.40

2+ shots84.7%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 4.28SoT/90 1.61Goals/90 0.63
Serhou GuirassyDortmund · key player
To score46.1%

@ 2.17

1+ on target72.0%

@ 1.39

2+ shots76.2%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.12SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.7
Ermedin DemirovicStuttgart · in form
To score36.2%

@ 2.76

1+ on target58.0%

@ 1.72

2+ shots55.6%

@ 1.80

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.72
Fabio SilvaDortmund · in form
To score22.7%

@ 4.41

1+ on target45.8%

@ 2.18

2+ shots40.5%

@ 2.47

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.45
Dzenan PejcinovicStuttgart · in form
To score21.7%

@ 4.61

1+ on target51.7%

@ 1.93

2+ shots53.3%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 3.14SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.43
Maximilian BeierDortmund · in form
To score24.2%

@ 4.13

1+ on target41.8%

@ 2.39

2+ shots47.6%

@ 2.10

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 0.8Goals/90 0.41

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Stuttgart win2.56
Draw4.28
Dortmund win2.66
Both teams to score1.47

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.49
Over 3.5 goals2.21
Over 4.5 goals3.78
Stuttgart most2.56
Dortmund most2.66

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.45
Stuttgart most1.64
Dortmund most3.46

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.04
Over 4.5 cards3.34
Over 5.5 cards6.25
Stuttgart most2.86
Dortmund most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.41
Over 8.5 SoT1.68
Over 9.5 SoT2.09
Stuttgart most1.72
Dortmund most3.28

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.41
Over 24.5 shots1.69
Over 26.5 shots2.12
Over 28.5 shots2.82
Stuttgart most1.55
Dortmund most3.36

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.87
Over 22.5 fouls2.42
Over 24.5 fouls3.29
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 70.7% Over 24.5 59.2% Over 26.5 47.1% Over 28.5 35.5%
Most: Stuttgart 64.7% Most: Dortmund 29.8%
Stuttgart Over 13.2 56.9% Dortmund Over 13.2 31.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.9% Over 7.5 70.9% Over 8.5 59.5% Over 9.5 47.9%
Most: Stuttgart 58.2% Most: Dortmund 30.5%
Stuttgart Over 4.2 60.0% Dortmund Over 4.2 39.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.3% Over 3.5 49.1% Over 4.5 29.9%
Most: Stuttgart 35.0% Most: Dortmund 43.3%
Stuttgart Over 1.8 51.1% Dortmund Over 1.8 57.1%

Stuttgart: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Deniz Undav 4.28 1.61 0.63 71.6% 84.7% 38.9%
Ermedin Demirovic 2.99 1.39 0.72 58.0% 55.6% 36.2%
Dzenan Pejcinovic 3.14 1.28 0.43 51.7% 53.3% 21.7%
Tiago Tomás 2.5 0.99 0.35 41.3% 38.8% 17.1%
Chris Führich 1.92 0.82 0.22 40.4% 34.1% 12.9%

Dortmund: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Serhou Guirassy 3.12 1.44 0.7 72.0% 76.2% 46.1%
Fabio Silva 2.43 1.07 0.45 45.8% 40.5% 22.7%
Maximilian Beier 2.37 0.8 0.41 41.8% 47.6% 24.2%
Ethan Nwaneri 2.46 0.78 0.36 26.1% 24.7% 13.0%
Felix Nmecha 1.34 0.38 0.19 25.1% 27.1% 13.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Stuttgart clean sheet 18.0%
Dortmund clean sheet 17.4%
Stuttgart win to nil 14.4%
Dortmund win to nil 13.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.0% draw 23.4% away 37.6%
double_chance
1X 62.4% 12 76.6% X2 61.0%
dnb
home 50.9% away 49.1%
btts
yes 67.9% no 32.1%
clean_sheet
home 18.2% away 17.6%
win_to_nil
home 14.5% away 13.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.5% home_by_2 11.8% home_by_3plus 8.7%
away_by_1 18.2% away_by_2 11.3% away_by_3plus 8.2%
correct_score
0-0 3.7% 0-1 5.0% 0-2 4.6%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 5.1% 1-1 9.9% 1-2 8.1%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 2.0% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.8% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 7.0%
2-3 4.0% 2-4 1.7% 2-5 0.6%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 4.8% 3-2 4.1%
3-3 2.3% 3-4 1.0% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 2.1% 4-2 1.8%
4-3 1.0% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.3% under_0.5 3.7% over_1.5 86.3%
under_1.5 13.7% over_2.5 66.9% under_2.5 33.1%
over_3.5 45.2% under_3.5 54.8% over_4.5 26.4%
under_4.5 73.6% over_5.5 13.5% under_5.5 86.5%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 82.4% under_0.5 17.6% over_1.5 51.9%
under_1.5 48.1% over_2.5 25.3% under_2.5 74.7%
team_away
over_0.5 81.8% under_0.5 18.2% over_1.5 50.8%
under_1.5 49.2% over_2.5 24.5% under_2.5 75.5%
most
home 39.0% draw 23.4% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.7% away_+2.5 91.3% home_-1.5 20.5%
away_+1.5 79.5% home_-0.5 39.0% away_+0.5 61.0%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 80.5%
away_-1.5 19.5% home_+2.5 91.9% away_-2.5 8.2%
total_exact
exact_0 3.7% exact_1 10.0% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 18.7% exact_5 12.9%
exact_6 7.4% exact_7plus 6.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.1% draw 37.8% away 31.1%
total
over_0.5 76.1% under_0.5 23.9% over_1.5 41.9%
under_1.5 58.1% over_2.5 17.4% under_2.5 82.6%
btts
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
total_exact
exact_0 23.9% exact_1 34.2% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 11.7% exact_4plus 5.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.7% draw 30.3% away 38.0%
total
over_0.5 87.1% under_0.5 12.9% over_1.5 60.8%
under_1.5 39.2% over_2.5 33.7% under_2.5 66.3%
btts
yes 41.0% no 59.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.6% H/D 5.8% H/A 3.7%
D/H 12.0% D/D 11.5% D/A 14.4%
A/H 2.8% A/D 5.1% A/A 23.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.6% under_7.5 24.4% over_8.5 64.5%
under_8.5 35.5% over_9.5 52.5% under_9.5 47.5%
over_10.5 40.8% under_10.5 59.2% over_11.5 30.2%
under_11.5 69.8% over_12.5 21.3% under_12.5 78.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.6% under_3.5 21.4% over_4.5 64.7%
under_4.5 35.3% over_5.5 49.9% under_5.5 50.1%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 40.1%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 25.6% under_5.5 74.4%
most
home 61.1% draw 10.0% away 28.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.0% away_+3.5 70.0% home_-1.5 50.4%
away_+1.5 49.6% home_-0.5 61.1% away_+0.5 38.9%
home_+0.5 71.1% away_-0.5 28.9% home_+1.5 79.6%
away_-1.5 20.4% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 70.8% under_22.5 29.3% over_24.5 59.2%
under_24.5 40.8% over_26.5 47.1% under_26.5 52.9%
over_28.5 35.5% under_28.5 64.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.2% under_10.5 20.8% over_12.5 64.8%
under_12.5 35.2% over_14.5 48.9% under_14.5 51.1%
team_away
over_10.5 57.5% under_10.5 42.5% over_12.5 39.6%
under_12.5 60.4% over_14.5 24.6% under_14.5 75.4%
most
home 64.7% draw 5.5% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.6% away_+4.5 59.4% home_-2.5 52.8%
away_+2.5 47.2% home_-0.5 64.7% away_+0.5 35.3%
home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8% home_+2.5 79.9%
away_-2.5 20.1% home_+4.5 87.4% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.9% under_6.5 19.1% over_7.5 70.9%
under_7.5 29.1% over_8.5 59.5% under_8.5 40.5%
over_9.5 47.9% under_9.5 52.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.1% under_3.5 24.9% over_4.5 60.0%
under_4.5 40.0% over_5.5 44.6% under_5.5 55.4%
team_away
over_3.5 57.6% under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 39.9%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 58.2% draw 11.2% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.9% away_+2.5 65.1% home_-0.5 58.2%
away_+0.5 41.8% home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5%
home_+2.5 86.6% away_-2.5 13.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.3% under_2.5 29.7% over_3.5 49.1%
under_3.5 50.9% over_4.5 29.9% under_4.5 70.1%
over_5.5 16.0% under_5.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 24.6%
under_2.5 75.4%
team_away
over_1.5 57.1% under_1.5 42.9% over_2.5 30.1%
under_2.5 69.9%
most
home 35.0% draw 21.7% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.6% away_+1.5 82.4% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+1.5 76.2% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.5% under_20.5 46.5% over_22.5 41.3%
under_22.5 58.7% over_24.5 30.4% under_24.5 69.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.5% under_9.5 48.5% over_11.5 34.4%
under_11.5 65.6% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
team_away
over_9.5 62.1% under_9.5 37.9% over_11.5 45.2%
under_11.5 54.8% over_13.5 30.3% under_13.5 69.7%
most
home 39.2% draw 6.2% away 54.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.7% away_+3.5 77.3% home_-0.5 39.2%
away_+0.5 60.8% home_+2.5 58.1% away_-2.5 41.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 16.2% no 83.8%
home
yes 6.3% no 93.7%
away
yes 10.5% no 89.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Stuttgart predictions · Dortmund predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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