Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart prediction & probabilities (2026-08-28)

Bundesliga

Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Corners

2026-08-28 · 19:30
Corners51.5%Over 9.5 corners
Best predictionOver 9.5 corners · 51.5%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
52%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 51.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. For context, Bayern Munich are favoured at 73.5%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Corners

Over 8.562.1%

Over 9.551.5%

Over 10.541.3%

Over 11.532.0%

Most cornersBayern Munich 61.4% · Stuttgart 28.5%

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Bayern Munich.

In-depth analysis

73.5%Favoured: Bayern Munich
71.0%Both Teams to Score
80.2%Over 2.5 goals
51.5%Over 9.5 corners

For context, Bayern Munich are favoured at 73.5%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 51.5% on Corners, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects an open, higher-tempo game from the 80.2% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutBayern Munich are the model’s pick on the result at 73.5%, a lean on probability, never on price.

Match outlook

Bayern Munich73.5%

Draw14.3%

Stuttgart12.2%

The model leans Bayern Munich to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

H

Harry KaneBayern Munich · 4.38 shots/90
To score 63.3%

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Bayern MunichWWDWW
StuttgartLDDWD

Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.

FAQ

How many corners in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.5% for Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Corners-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0097Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
54,671Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 30 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

AI experts on this match

Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.

Expert Pick
btts_specialist v1.0 BTTS
sot_specialist v1.0 sot_over_6.5

See all experts & their track records →

More Bundesliga, Corners

All Corners predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.