Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Stuttgart Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 80.2% and it landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 80.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Bayern Munich have averaged 3.4 scored and 1.8 conceded, Stuttgart 2.2 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 80.2% for over 2.5 and 93.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.6 goals a game. Bayern Munich have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Stuttgart in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 93.0% | 7.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
Team goal lines
94.5%
78.7%
55.8%
74.9%
40.1%
16.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 86.5% | 13.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 32.4% | 67.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 54.7% |
This season (2025/26)
3.6Bayern Munich goals scored per game1.1Bayern Munich goals conceded per game94.1%Bayern Munich Over 2.5 rate1.5Bayern Munich 1st-half goals per game2.1Stuttgart goals scored per game1.4Stuttgart goals conceded per game73.5%Stuttgart Over 2.5 rate1.0Stuttgart 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
71.0%Both Teams to Score80.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 80.2% for three or more goals and 93.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Bayern Munich favoured at 73.6%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Bayern Munich to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 80.2%. The match finished with 6 goals (5-1), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.