Hamburg vs FC Koln prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Hamburg vs FC Koln: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Hamburg

WDLLL

Sat, 19 Sep 202614:30UK18°C · Cloudy
FC Koln

LLWLD

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Draw or FC Koln

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

FC Koln39.5%

Win probability · fair 2.53

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely82.3%Fair 1.22
Draw or FC KolnLikely63.9%Fair 1.56
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.8%Fair 1.57

Model read

The probabilities barely separate Hamburg and FC Koln on 19 September 2026: FC Koln nose ahead at 40%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 60% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. Terem Igobor Moffi drives the home shot volume, 1.9 on target per 90. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Hamburg, 1 draws and 2 for FC Koln at 3.2 goals per match. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 0.6 mm of rain around kickoff. The run in: Hamburg arrive W2 D1 L3, FC Koln W1 D2 L3. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.8%@ 2.34
FC Koln win39.5%@ 2.53
Over 11.5 corners33.3%@ 3.00
Medium risk

Hamburg or draw60.5%@ 1.65
Over 2.5 goals60.2%@ 1.66
Over 9.5 corners53.2%@ 1.88
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.86
1-2 correct score8.5%@ 11.76
2-1 correct score8.3%@ 12.12

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Hamburg

36.1%

Draw

24.4%

FC Koln

39.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely82.3%Fair 1.22
Over 2.5Likely60.2%Fair 1.66
BTTS · YesLikely62.8%Fair 1.59

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.8%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.2%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.8%Fair 2.34
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.3%Fair 3.00
Most cornersHamburg53.4%FC Koln36.0%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.0%Fair 1.39
Over 24.5 shotsLikely60.6%Fair 1.65
Over 26.5 shotsClose call48.6%Fair 2.06
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely36.9%Fair 2.71

Recent shot volume

Hamburg11.3 taken15.8 faced
FC Koln14.3 taken15.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Hamburg (3 games)

2.0 / 7.0

FC Koln (3 games)

5.7 / 11.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.3%2.560.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.2%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

HamburgWDLLL
FC KolnLLWLD

Last 5 meetings: Hamburg 2 · 1 draws · FC Koln 2 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-03-14Hamburg 1-1 FC Koln
2025-11-02FC Koln 4-1 Hamburg
2018-01-20Hamburg 0-2 FC Koln
2017-08-25FC Koln 1-3 Hamburg
2017-04-01Hamburg 2-1 FC Koln

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

HamburgFC Koln
League position#18 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-31-1-1
Current streakL3D1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 59%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Terem Igobor MoffiHamburg · key player
To score15.3%

@ 6.54

1+ on target54.1%

@ 1.85

2+ shots40.4%

@ 2.48

Shots/90 3.42SoT/90 1.92Goals/90 0.41
Said El MalaFC Koln · key player
To score32.4%

@ 3.09

1+ on target58.9%

@ 1.70

2+ shots65.1%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 3.52SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.62
Yussuf PoulsenHamburg · in form
To score7.9%

@ 12.66

1+ on target22.1%

@ 4.52

2+ shots12.6%

@ 7.94

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.24Goals/90 0.41
Mikey MooreFC Koln · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target34.8%

@ 2.87

2+ shots21.3%

@ 4.69

Shots/90 1.93SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0
Rayan PhilippeHamburg · in form
To score14.9%

@ 6.71

1+ on target42.1%

@ 2.38

2+ shots38.0%

@ 2.63

Shots/90 2.78SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.34
Ragnar AcheFC Koln · in form
To score19.6%

@ 5.10

1+ on target46.6%

@ 2.15

2+ shots53.1%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.33

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Hamburg win2.73
Draw4.03
FC Koln win2.59
Both teams to score1.59

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.66
Over 3.5 goals2.64
Over 4.5 goals4.89
Hamburg most2.73
FC Koln most2.59

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.50
Over 9.5 corners1.82
Over 10.5 corners2.32
Hamburg most1.87
FC Koln most2.77

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29
Over 3.5 cards1.70
Over 4.5 cards2.55
Over 5.5 cards4.31
Hamburg most2.74
FC Koln most2.32

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.46
Over 8.5 SoT1.76
Over 9.5 SoT2.22
Hamburg most1.82
FC Koln most3.01

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39
Over 24.5 shots1.65
Over 26.5 shots2.06
Over 28.5 shots2.71
Hamburg most1.65
FC Koln most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.88
Over 22.5 fouls2.43
Over 24.5 fouls3.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.0% Over 24.5 60.6% Over 26.5 48.6% Over 28.5 36.9%
Most: Hamburg 60.8% Most: FC Koln 33.5%
Hamburg Over 13.2 55.2% FC Koln Over 13.2 35.5%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.2% Over 7.5 68.6% Over 8.5 56.9% Over 9.5 45.1%
Most: Hamburg 55.1% Most: FC Koln 33.3%
Hamburg Over 4.2 56.2% FC Koln Over 4.2 40.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 77.7% Over 3.5 58.7% Over 4.5 39.2%
Most: Hamburg 36.6% Most: FC Koln 43.1%
Hamburg Over 1.8 58.5% FC Koln Over 1.8 63.0%

Hamburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Terem Igobor Moffi 3.42 1.92 0.41 54.1% 40.4% 15.3%
Yussuf Poulsen 3.03 1.24 0.41 22.1% 12.6% 7.9%
Rayan Philippe 2.78 1.15 0.34 42.1% 38.0% 14.9%
Albert Grønbæk 1.83 0.8 0.17 36.4% 27.7% 9.2%
Fábio Vieira 2.35 0.74 0.27 45.7% 57.7% 19.9%

FC Koln: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Said El Mala 3.52 1.41 0.62 58.9% 65.1% 32.4%
Mikey Moore 1.93 0.96 0 34.8% 21.3% 0.0%
Ragnar Ache 2.69 0.95 0.33 46.6% 53.1% 19.6%
Marius Bülter 2.22 0.94 0.36 44.8% 41.0% 20.4%
Thijs Dallinga 2.73 0.8 0.33 27.4% 29.8% 12.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Hamburg clean sheet 20.5%
FC Koln clean sheet 21.4%
Hamburg win to nil 15.5%
FC Koln win to nil 16.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.6% draw 24.8% away 38.6%
double_chance
1X 61.4% 12 75.2% X2 63.4%
dnb
home 48.7% away 51.3%
btts
yes 62.8% no 37.2%
clean_sheet
home 20.6% away 21.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.6% away 16.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.6% home_by_2 11.0% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 19.2% away_by_2 11.6% away_by_3plus 7.8%
correct_score
0-0 5.0% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 2.9% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 11.3% 1-2 8.5%
1-3 4.5% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.4% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.0% under_0.5 5.0% over_1.5 82.3%
under_1.5 17.7% over_2.5 60.2% under_2.5 39.8%
over_3.5 37.9% under_3.5 62.1% over_4.5 20.5%
under_4.5 79.5% over_5.5 9.6% under_5.5 90.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 78.4% under_0.5 21.6% over_1.5 45.4%
under_1.5 54.6% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
team_away
over_0.5 79.4% under_0.5 20.6% over_1.5 46.9%
under_1.5 53.1% over_2.5 21.2% under_2.5 78.8%
most
home 36.6% draw 24.8% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 18.0%
away_+1.5 82.0% home_-0.5 36.6% away_+0.5 63.4%
home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.6% home_+1.5 80.6%
away_-1.5 19.4% home_+2.5 92.2% away_-2.5 7.8%
total_exact
exact_0 5.0% exact_1 12.7% exact_2 22.1%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.4% exact_5 10.9%
exact_6 5.6% exact_7plus 4.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.8% draw 40.6% away 28.7%
total
over_0.5 71.9% under_0.5 28.1% over_1.5 36.3%
under_1.5 63.7% over_2.5 13.6% under_2.5 86.4%
btts
yes 22.1% no 77.9%
total_exact
exact_0 28.1% exact_1 35.7% exact_2 22.7%
exact_3 9.6% exact_4plus 4.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.2% draw 33.0% away 34.8%
total
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.4%
under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
btts
yes 34.9% no 65.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.1% H/D 5.6% H/A 3.0%
D/H 13.1% D/D 13.4% D/A 14.1%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.0% A/A 21.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.4% under_7.5 22.6% over_8.5 66.6%
under_8.5 33.4% over_9.5 54.9% under_9.5 45.1%
over_10.5 43.1% under_10.5 56.9% over_11.5 32.3%
under_11.5 67.7% over_12.5 23.1% under_12.5 76.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.8% under_3.5 24.2% over_4.5 61.1%
under_4.5 38.9% over_5.5 45.9% under_5.5 54.1%
team_away
over_3.5 64.9% under_3.5 35.1% over_4.5 48.0%
under_4.5 52.0% over_5.5 32.8% under_5.5 67.2%
most
home 53.5% draw 10.5% away 36.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.8% away_+3.5 76.2% home_-1.5 42.8%
away_+1.5 57.2% home_-0.5 53.5% away_+0.5 46.5%
home_+0.5 63.9% away_-0.5 36.1% home_+1.5 73.5%
away_-1.5 26.5% home_+3.5 87.7% away_-3.5 12.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.0% under_22.5 28.0% over_24.5 60.6%
under_24.5 39.4% over_26.5 48.6% under_26.5 51.4%
over_28.5 36.9% under_28.5 63.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.1% under_10.5 21.9% over_12.5 63.2%
under_12.5 36.8% over_14.5 47.2% under_14.5 52.8%
team_away
over_10.5 61.6% under_10.5 38.5% over_12.5 43.7%
under_12.5 56.3% over_14.5 28.1% under_14.5 71.9%
most
home 60.8% draw 5.7% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 48.7%
away_+2.5 51.3% home_-0.5 60.8% away_+0.5 39.3%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5% home_+2.5 76.8%
away_-2.5 23.2% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.2% under_6.5 20.8% over_7.5 68.6%
under_7.5 31.4% over_8.5 56.9% under_8.5 43.1%
over_9.5 45.1% under_9.5 54.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.1% under_3.5 27.9% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 40.6% under_5.5 59.4%
team_away
over_3.5 58.1% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.4%
under_4.5 59.6% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 55.1% draw 11.7% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.7% away_+2.5 68.3% home_-0.5 55.1%
away_+0.5 45.0% home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3%
home_+2.5 85.1% away_-2.5 14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 77.7% under_2.5 22.3% over_3.5 58.7%
under_3.5 41.3% over_4.5 39.2% under_4.5 60.8%
over_5.5 23.2% under_5.5 76.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.5% under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 31.5%
under_2.5 68.5%
team_away
over_1.5 63.1% under_1.5 37.0% over_2.5 36.1%
under_2.5 63.9%
most
home 36.6% draw 20.3% away 43.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.6% away_+1.5 80.4% home_-0.5 36.6%
away_+0.5 63.4% home_+0.5 56.9% away_-0.5 43.1%
home_+1.5 75.3% away_-1.5 24.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.3% under_20.5 46.7% over_22.5 41.1%
under_22.5 58.9% over_24.5 30.2% under_24.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.5% under_9.5 42.5% over_11.5 40.3%
under_11.5 59.7% over_13.5 26.0% under_13.5 74.1%
team_away
over_9.5 56.2% under_9.5 43.8% over_11.5 39.0%
under_11.5 61.0% over_13.5 24.9% under_13.5 75.1%
most
home 47.7% draw 6.3% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.7% away_+3.5 70.3% home_-0.5 47.7%
away_+0.5 52.3% home_+2.5 66.3% away_-2.5 33.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 24.7% no 75.3%
home
yes 14.8% no 85.2%
away
yes 11.6% no 88.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Hamburg predictions · FC Koln predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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