Premier League
Arsenal vs 
Leeds Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 83.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Arsenal are favoured at 59.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 1 | 25.1% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 18.1% |
| Arsenal by 3+ | 14.7% |
| Leeds by 1 | 11.8% |
| Leeds by 2 | 4.2% |
| Leeds by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% |
Goal handicap
| Arsenal line | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| -1.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +0.5 | 82.7% | 17.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Arsenal goals scored per game0.8Arsenal goals conceded per game1.4Leeds goals scored per game0.6Leeds goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Arsenal or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
46.6%Both Teams to Score46.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Arsenal are favoured at 59.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Arsenal 5 · 0 draws · Leeds 0 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Arsenal vs Leeds?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Arsenal vs Leeds at 83.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Arsenal vs Leeds?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Arsenal at 77.0% and Leeds at 23.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,098 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
