AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
PortoPortoWWWWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1020:30UK
EstorilEstorilDLLLL

Porto vs Estoril cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.6%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Porto vs Estoril. The model leans toward Estoril for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.7% 18.3%
3.5 cards 64.4% 35.6%
4.5 cards 45.3% 54.7%
5.5 cards 28.4% 71.6%

Who picks up more cards

Porto
29.6%
Level
18.9%
Estoril
51.5%

Team cards lines

Porto

Over 1.5
56.9%
Over 2.5
29.9%

Estoril

Over 1.5
71.5%
Over 2.5
45.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Porto's; Estoril gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Porto line Porto Estoril
-1.5 15.1% 84.9%
-0.5 29.6% 70.4%
+0.5 48.5% 51.5%
+1.5 67.5% 32.6%

Red card

Any red card15.9%
Porto red card4.3%
Estoril red card12.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 82.0% 18.0%
22.5 fouls 71.6% 28.4%
24.5 fouls 59.4% 40.7%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Porto Miguel Nogueira 2 3.5 1.5
Estoril Carlos Macedo 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

PortoPorto

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Porto at home and Estoril away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

EstorilEstoril
Statistic
Porto
Estoril
Cards per game at this venue
1.3
·

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.3
·

Yellow cards per game
1.1
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.9

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
25.0%
50.0%

Matches with card data
8
6
Red cards this season
0
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 64.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 81.7% for over 2.5 to 28.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. Head to head on cards, Estoril are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 18.9%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Porto over 1.5 cards sits at 56.9% and Estoril at 71.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.9% (Porto 4.3%, Estoril 12.1%). Porto’s most frequent referee this season, Miguel Nogueira, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Porto have averaged 1.1 cards a game and Estoril 2.2.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

64.4%Over 3.5 cards
15.9%Any red card
51.5%Most cards: Estoril
56.9%Porto over 1.5 cards
71.5%Estoril over 1.5 cards
71.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherMiguel Nogueira, Porto’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianEstoril are the pick to collect more cards at 51.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
PortoPorto

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

EstorilEstoril
Statistic
Porto
Estoril
cards per game
1.1
2.2

fouls per game
14.4
11.7

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Porto vs Estoril?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.4% for Porto vs Estoril.
Will there be a red card in Porto vs Estoril?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Porto vs Estoril?
The model rates Estoril to pick up more cards at 51.5%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.