AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Academico ViseuAcademicoWWWWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1118:00UK
Rio AveRio AveLDLWL

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined64.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined35.6%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards64.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave. It tips Rio Ave for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.7% 18.3%
3.5 cards 64.5% 35.6%
4.5 cards 45.3% 54.7%
5.5 cards 28.4% 71.6%

Who picks up more cards

Academico Viseu
38.5%
Level
19.6%
Rio Ave
42.0%

Team cards lines

Academico Viseu

Over 1.5
63.6%
Over 2.5
36.8%

Rio Ave

Over 1.5
66.0%
Over 2.5
39.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Academico Viseu's; Rio Ave gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Academico Viseu line Academico Viseu Rio Ave
-1.5 21.6% 78.4%
-0.5 38.5% 61.6%
+0.5 58.0% 42.0%
+1.5 75.6% 24.4%

Red card

Any red card15.5%
Academico Viseu red card2.7%
Rio Ave red card13.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 81.9% 18.1%
22.5 fouls 71.4% 28.6%
24.5 fouls 59.2% 40.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Rio Ave Carlos Macedo 2 2.5 2.0
Rio Ave G. Correia 2 5.0 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Academico Viseu at home and Rio Ave away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Rio AveRio Ave
Statistic
Academico Viseu
Rio Ave
Cards per game at this venue
2.7
2.0

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.7
1.5

Yellow cards per game
3.3
1.5

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
2.4
1.1

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
25.0%

Matches with card data
4
8
Red cards this season
·
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 64.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 81.7% for over 2.5 to 28.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.3%. Between the two sides, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 19.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Academico Viseu over 1.5 cards sits at 63.6% and Rio Ave at 66.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.5% (Academico Viseu 2.7%, Rio Ave 13.2%). Rio Ave’s most frequent referee this season, Carlos Macedo, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

64.5%Over 3.5 cards
15.5%Any red card
42.0%Most cards: Rio Ave
63.6%Academico Viseu over 1.5 cards
66.0%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards
71.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 64.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherCarlos Macedo, Rio Ave’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianRio Ave are the pick to collect more cards at 42.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Rio AveRio Ave
Statistic
Academico Viseu
Rio Ave
cards per game
·
1.8

fouls per game
14.4
8.9

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 64.5% for Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave.
Will there be a red card in Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave?
The model rates Rio Ave to pick up more cards at 42.0%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Primeira LigaAcademico Viseu fixtures and statsRio Ave fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.