AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
AroucaAroucaDLDWW
Sun, 1 Nov 20261/1115:30UK
NacionalNacionalLLLLW

Arouca vs Nacional corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined52.9%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined47.1%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners47.1%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Arouca.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 69.6% 30.4%
8.5 corners 58.4% 41.6%
9.5 corners 47.1% 52.9%
10.5 corners 36.4% 63.6%
11.5 corners 27.1% 72.9%
12.5 corners 19.4% 80.6%

Who wins the corner count

Arouca
52.5%
Level
10.1%
Nacional
37.4%

Team corners lines

Arouca

Over 3.5
69.2%
Over 4.5
54.5%
Over 5.5
40.4%

Nacional

Over 3.5
58.9%
Over 4.5
43.0%
Over 5.5
29.4%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Arouca's; Nacional gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Arouca line Arouca Nacional
-1.5 42.3% 57.8%
-0.5 52.5% 47.5%
+0.5 62.6% 37.4%
+1.5 71.9% 28.1%
AroucaArouca

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Arouca at home and Nacional away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NacionalNacional
Statistic
Arouca
Nacional
Corners won per game at this venue
4.3
3.8

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.5
7.0

First-half corners won per game
1.8
2.1

Second-half corners won per game
1.3
2.3

Matches with more corners than the opponent
22.2%
50.0%

Matches with corner data
9
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 47.1%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.6% for over 7.5 to 19.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.1%. Between the two sides, Arouca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.5%, with a level count at 10.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Arouca over 4.5 corners sits at 54.5% and Nacional at 43.0%. This season Arouca have averaged 3.1 corners won a game and Nacional 4.4.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

47.1%Over 9.5 corners
52.5%Most corners: Arouca
54.5%Arouca over 4.5 corners
43.0%Nacional over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.1% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderArouca are the pick to win the corner count at 52.5%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 47.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
AroucaArouca

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NacionalNacional
Statistic
Arouca
Nacional
corners won per game
3.1
4.4

corners conceded per game
5.1
4.8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 47.1% for Arouca vs Nacional.
Which team will win the corner count in Arouca vs Nacional?
The model rates Arouca to win the corner count at 52.5%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Arouca and Nacional average this season?
Arouca have won 3.1 corners a game this season and Nacional 4.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Primeira Liga, Corners

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP corners predictionMoreirense vs Estrela corners predictionPorto vs Estoril corners predictionAcademico Viseu vs Rio Ave corners predictionMaritimo vs Santa Clara corners predictionSp Braga vs Famalicao corners prediction

Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaArouca fixtures and statsNacional fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.