Willem II vs For Sittard prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Willem II vs For Sittard: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Willem II

LLDLD

Sat, 19 Sep 202620:00UK
For Sittard

WLWWL

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Both teams to score

65%

Draw or For Sittard

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

For Sittard40.6%

Win probability · fair 2.46

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.4%Fair 1.18
Both teams to scoreLikely65.3%Fair 1.53
Draw or For SittardLikely64.7%Fair 1.55

Model read

Willem II versus For Sittard in the Eredivisie on 19 September 2026 is finely balanced. For Sittard edge it at 41%, but the gap to the field is slim. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 64% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 65%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Willem II, 2 draws and 2 for For Sittard, averaging 1.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W0 D3 L3 for Willem II against W3 D1 L2 for For Sittard. Willem II are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners43.8%@ 2.28
For Sittard win40.6%@ 2.46
Over 11.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Willem II or draw59.4%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners53.5%@ 1.87
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.41
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.63
2-1 correct score8.0%@ 12.55

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Willem II

35.3%

Draw

24.1%

For Sittard

40.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.4%Fair 1.18
Over 2.5Likely63.6%Fair 1.57
BTTS · YesLikely65.3%Fair 1.53

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.5%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.5%Fair 1.87
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.8%Fair 2.28
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Most cornersWillem II57.8%For Sittard32.4%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely72.6%Fair 1.38
Over 24.5 shotsLikely62.2%Fair 1.61
Over 26.5 shotsClose call51.2%Fair 1.95
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely40.2%Fair 2.49

Recent shot volume

Willem II11.5 taken17.7 faced
For Sittard9.0 taken21.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.4%2.563.6%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.6%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Willem IILLDLD
For SittardWLWWL

Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · For Sittard 2 · 1.4 goals/game.

2025-04-27For Sittard 1-0 Willem II
2024-10-20Willem II 0-0 For Sittard
2022-03-13For Sittard 1-0 Willem II
2021-10-22Willem II 1-1 For Sittard
2021-05-16Willem II 2-1 For Sittard

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Willem IIFor Sittard
League position#17 of 22#7 of 22
Record W-D-L0-2-43-1-2
Current streakL1L1
Points per game0.331.67
Record, home vs away0-1-22-1-0
PPG, home vs away0.332.33
Goals scored per game1.002.00
Goals conceded per game3.172.33
Scored, home vs away1.002.67
Conceded, home vs away3.002.00
1st half goals per game0.201.17
2nd half goals per game0.800.83
Corners won per game4.22.0
Cards per game1.01.8
Fouls per game10.29.0
Red cards this season01
Shots per game11.69.0
Shots faced per game17.821.0
Shots on target per game2.44.8
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%83.3%

BTTS rate

83.3%83.3%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:Willem IIFor Sittard

League averages this season: 3.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Willem II win2.83
Draw4.15
For Sittard win2.46
Both teams to score1.53

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.57
Over 3.5 goals2.41
Over 4.5 goals4.29
Willem II most2.83
For Sittard most2.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.48
Over 9.5 corners1.78
Over 10.5 corners2.25
Willem II most1.72
For Sittard most3.08

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.80
Over 3.5 cards3.00
Over 4.5 cards5.80
Over 5.5 cards12.84
Willem II most3.59
For Sittard most2.07

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.36
Over 8.5 SoT1.59
Over 9.5 SoT1.92
Willem II most2.25
For Sittard most2.25

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.38
Over 24.5 shots1.61
Over 26.5 shots1.95
Over 28.5 shots2.49
Willem II most1.70
For Sittard most2.80

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.85
Over 22.5 fouls2.57
Over 24.5 fouls3.90
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 72.6% Over 24.5 62.2% Over 26.5 51.2% Over 28.5 40.2%
Most: Willem II 58.9% Most: For Sittard 35.7%
Willem II Over 13.2 55.7% For Sittard Over 13.2 38.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.6% Over 7.5 73.5% Over 8.5 63.0% Over 9.5 52.0%
Most: Willem II 44.4% Most: For Sittard 44.4%
Willem II Over 4.2 53.0% For Sittard Over 4.2 53.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 55.4% Over 3.5 33.3% Over 4.5 17.3%
Most: Willem II 27.9% Most: For Sittard 48.2%
Willem II Over 1.8 34.5% For Sittard Over 1.8 50.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Willem II clean sheet 18.2%
For Sittard clean sheet 20.5%
Willem II win to nil 13.9%
For Sittard win to nil 16.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 35.3% draw 24.1% away 40.6%
double_chance
1X 59.4% 12 75.9% X2 64.7%
dnb
home 46.6% away 53.5%
btts
yes 65.3% no 34.7%
clean_sheet
home 18.3% away 20.7%
win_to_nil
home 14.0% away 16.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.9% home_by_2 10.6% home_by_3plus 6.9%
away_by_1 19.4% away_by_2 12.3% away_by_3plus 8.9%
correct_score
0-0 4.3% 0-1 5.9% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 5.5% 1-1 10.6% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 4.9% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.7% 2-1 8.0% 2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.8% 2-4 1.6% 2-5 0.6%
3-0 2.5% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 2.0% 3-4 0.9% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.7% under_0.5 4.3% over_1.5 84.4%
under_1.5 15.7% over_2.5 63.6% under_2.5 36.4%
over_3.5 41.4% under_3.5 58.6% over_4.5 23.3%
under_4.5 76.7% over_5.5 11.4% under_5.5 88.6%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 79.3% under_0.5 20.7% over_1.5 46.7%
under_1.5 53.3% over_2.5 21.1% under_2.5 79.0%
team_away
over_0.5 81.7% under_0.5 18.3% over_1.5 50.7%
under_1.5 49.3% over_2.5 24.3% under_2.5 75.7%
most
home 35.3% draw 24.1% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.9% away_+2.5 93.1% home_-1.5 17.4%
away_+1.5 82.6% home_-0.5 35.3% away_+0.5 64.7%
home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6% home_+1.5 78.8%
away_-1.5 21.2% home_+2.5 91.1% away_-2.5 8.9%
total_exact
exact_0 4.3% exact_1 11.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.1% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.5% exact_7plus 5.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.9% draw 38.6% away 39.5%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 22.8% no 77.2%
total_exact
exact_0 26.1% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.4% draw 31.4% away 32.2%
total
over_0.5 85.7% under_0.5 14.3% over_1.5 57.8%
under_1.5 42.2% over_2.5 30.8% under_2.5 69.2%
btts
yes 38.6% no 61.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 15.9% H/D 3.9% H/A 2.1%
D/H 14.1% D/D 12.1% D/A 12.4%
A/H 4.1% A/D 7.0% A/A 28.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.0% under_7.5 22.0% over_8.5 67.6%
under_8.5 32.4% over_9.5 56.1% under_9.5 43.9%
over_10.5 44.5% under_10.5 55.5% over_11.5 33.8%
under_11.5 66.2% over_12.5 24.6% under_12.5 75.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.8% under_3.5 22.2% over_4.5 64.3%
under_4.5 35.7% over_5.5 50.0% under_5.5 50.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.8% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 30.3% under_5.5 69.7%
most
home 58.0% draw 9.5% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.8% home_-1.5 48.0%
away_+1.5 52.0% home_-0.5 58.0% away_+0.5 42.0%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 76.0%
away_-1.5 24.0% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.6% under_22.5 27.4% over_24.5 62.2%
under_24.5 37.8% over_26.5 51.2% under_26.5 48.8%
over_28.5 40.2% under_28.5 59.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.9% under_10.5 23.2% over_12.5 63.1%
under_12.5 36.9% over_14.5 48.3% under_14.5 51.7%
team_away
over_10.5 62.7% under_10.5 37.3% over_12.5 46.5%
under_12.5 53.5% over_14.5 31.9% under_14.5 68.2%
most
home 58.9% draw 5.4% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 47.8%
away_+2.5 52.3% home_-0.5 58.9% away_+0.5 41.1%
home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+2.5 74.2%
away_-2.5 25.8% home_+4.5 82.4% away_-4.5 17.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.6% under_6.5 17.4% over_7.5 73.5%
under_7.5 26.5% over_8.5 63.0% under_8.5 37.0%
over_9.5 52.0% under_9.5 48.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.9% under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 53.0%
under_4.5 47.0% over_5.5 38.1% under_5.5 62.0%
team_away
over_3.5 68.9% under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 53.1%
under_4.5 46.9% over_5.5 38.1% under_5.5 61.9%
most
home 44.4% draw 11.2% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.1% away_+2.5 75.9% home_-0.5 44.4%
away_+0.5 55.6% home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.4%
home_+2.5 75.8% away_-2.5 24.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 55.4% under_2.5 44.6% over_3.5 33.3%
under_3.5 66.7% over_4.5 17.3% under_4.5 82.8%
over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.2%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 34.5% under_1.5 65.5% over_2.5 12.7%
under_2.5 87.3%
team_away
over_1.5 50.0% under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 24.1%
under_2.5 75.9%
most
home 27.9% draw 23.9% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.6% away_+1.5 88.4% home_-0.5 27.9%
away_+0.5 72.1% home_+0.5 51.8% away_-0.5 48.2%
home_+1.5 74.1% away_-1.5 25.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 54.1% under_20.5 45.9% over_22.5 38.9%
under_22.5 61.1% over_24.5 25.6% under_24.5 74.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.9% under_9.5 42.1% over_11.5 36.2%
under_11.5 63.8% over_13.5 19.3% under_13.5 80.7%
team_away
over_9.5 61.8% under_9.5 38.2% over_11.5 40.2%
under_11.5 59.8% over_13.5 22.3% under_13.5 77.7%
most
home 43.3% draw 7.8% away 48.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-0.5 43.3%
away_+0.5 56.8% home_+2.5 66.3% away_-2.5 33.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.3% no 92.7%
home
yes 2.5% no 97.5%
away
yes 4.9% no 95.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Willem II predictions · For Sittard predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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More on this match

EredivisieWillem IIFor SittardTrack record