Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Ajax1-1Nijmegen
We called Under 3.5 at 58.7% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 88.5% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Moderate
Over 3.5 cards41.3%
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ajax vs Nijmegen. The model leans toward Nijmegen for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 11.7% | 88.3% |
Who picks up more cards
AjaxNijmegenTeam cards lines
Ajax
Nijmegen
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ajax's; Nijmegen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Ajax line | Ajax | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| -0.5 | 31.8% | 68.3% |
| +0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +1.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.6% | 70.4% |
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ajax at home and Nijmegen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 41.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.2% for over 2.5 to 11.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.3%. On the card count, Nijmegen are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 22.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Ajax over 1.5 cards sits at 43.0% and Nijmegen at 53.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.5% (Ajax 2.9%, Nijmegen 8.8%). This season Ajax have averaged 1.9 cards a game and Nijmegen 1.6.
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
Will there be a red card in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
Which team will pick up more cards in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
