Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen corners: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Ajax1-1Nijmegen
We called Over 9.5 at 54.0% and it missed (8 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 9.5 corners54.0%
Corners
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Ajax.
Total corners
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.9% | 77.1% |
Who wins the corner count
AjaxNijmegenTeam corners lines
Ajax
Nijmegen
Corner handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ajax's; Nijmegen gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Ajax line | Ajax | Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.6% | 72.4% |
| -1.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| -0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +0.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
Corner trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Ajax at home and Nijmegen away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 54.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.5% for over 7.5 to 22.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. On the corner count, Ajax are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.5%, with a level count at 9.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Ajax over 4.5 corners sits at 62.1% and Nijmegen at 44.6%. This season Ajax have averaged 8.0 corners won a game and Nijmegen 5.0.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many corners in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
Which team will win the corner count in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
How many corners do Ajax and Nijmegen average this season?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Eredivisie, Corners
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
