Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Ajax1-1Nijmegen
Final score 1-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 9.5%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 9.5%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Ajax goals, columns = Nijmegen goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9.5%.
Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-19.5%
- 2-19.4%
- 2-06.8%
- 2-26.5%
- 3-16.5%
- 1-26.3%
- 1-06.1%
- 3-04.7%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 1% | 1.4% | 1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Nijmegen
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
W
L
W
W
D
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
W
L
D
L
D
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 9.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ajax have averaged 3.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, Nijmegen 1.4 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 67.0% for over 2.5 and 86.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 67.0% for three or more goals and 86.3% for at least two, painting a high-scoring picture. Given Ajax favoured at 52.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
What was the score in Ajax vs Nijmegen?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
