AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
YorkYorkLWDDD
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
Port ValePort ValeWLWWD

York 2-0 Port Vale cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.6%

Result

York2-0Port Vale
1 yellow cardsYork 0, Port Vale 1
0 red cardsYork 0, Port Vale 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 50.4% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 86.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

David Webb

Recorded match referee.

David Webb in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 305 5
Goals 2.72 3.00
Yellow cards 2.80 2.20
Red cards 0.10 0.00
Corners 10.5 10.4
Fouls 20.9 19.8
Both teams scored 57% 40%
Over 2.5 goals 52% 60%
Home wins 43% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 York vs Port Vale 2-0 2 No 1 0 10 20
13 Oct 2026 Bristol City vs BlackburnChampionship 0-1 1 No 0 0 15 15
19 Sep 2026 Birmingham vs MiddlesbroughChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 8 22
8 Sep 2026 Bolton vs West HamChampionship 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 8 19
29 Aug 2026 Derby vs SwanseaChampionship 0-3 3 No 5 0 11 23
25 Apr 2026 Stoke vs PortsmouthChampionship 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 9 22
22 Apr 2026 Middlesbrough vs Sheffield WedsChampionship 1-0 1 No 4 0 10 29
12 Apr 2026 Birmingham vs WrexhamChampionship 2-0 2 No 2 0 9 21
6 Apr 2026 Hull vs CoventryChampionship 0-0 0 No 2 0 6 22
11 Mar 2026 Oxford vs BlackburnChampionship 1-0 1 No 2 0 10 16

David Webb referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for York vs Port Vale. Slightly more cards are projected for Port Vale for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.6% 29.4%
3.5 cards 49.6% 50.4%
4.5 cards 30.3% 69.7%
5.5 cards 16.3% 83.7%

Who picks up more cards

York
32.9%
Level
21.5%
Port Vale
45.6%

Team cards lines

York

Over 1.5
49.7%
Over 2.5
23.4%

Port Vale

Over 1.5
59.0%
Over 2.5
31.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is York's; Port Vale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

York line York Port Vale
-1.5 16.2% 83.8%
-0.5 32.9% 67.1%
+0.5 54.4% 45.6%
+1.5 74.3% 25.7%

Red card

Any red card13.1%
York red card4.9%
Port Vale red card8.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.6% 31.4%
22.5 fouls 53.4% 46.6%
24.5 fouls 38.3% 61.7%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.6% for over 2.5 to 16.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.6%. Between the two sides, Port Vale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, York over 1.5 cards sits at 49.7% and Port Vale at 59.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (York 4.9%, Port Vale 8.6%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

49.6%Over 3.5 cards
13.1%Any red card
45.6%Most cards: Port Vale
49.7%York over 1.5 cards
59.0%Port Vale over 1.5 cards
53.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianPort Vale are the pick to collect more cards at 45.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 49.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in York vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.6% for York vs Port Vale.
Will there be a red card in York vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in York vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Port Vale to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 21.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoYork fixtures and statsPort Vale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.