AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
YorkYorkLWDDD
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
Port ValePort ValeWLWWD

York 2-0 Port Vale corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined53.9%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46.1%

Result

York2-0Port Vale
10 cornersYork 2, Port Vale 8
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 53.9% and it landed (10 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners53.9%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges York.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.2% 23.8%
8.5 corners 65.5% 34.6%
9.5 corners 53.9% 46.1%
10.5 corners 42.4% 57.6%
11.5 corners 32.0% 68.1%
12.5 corners 23.0% 77.0%

Who wins the corner count

York
57.2%
Level
10.2%
Port Vale
32.6%

Team corners lines

York

Over 3.5
77.0%
Over 4.5
62.8%
Over 5.5
48.0%

Port Vale

Over 3.5
61.4%
Over 4.5
44.4%
Over 5.5
29.6%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is York's; Port Vale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

York line York Port Vale
-3.5 26.8% 73.2%
-1.5 46.5% 53.5%
-0.5 57.2% 42.8%
+0.5 67.4% 32.6%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 53.9%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.2% for over 7.5 to 23.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.9%. On the corner count, York are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 10.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

53.9%Over 9.5 corners
57.2%Most corners: York
62.8%York over 4.5 corners
44.4%Port Vale over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, York over 4.5 corners sits at 62.8% and Port Vale at 44.4%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.9% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderYork are the pick to win the corner count at 57.2%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 53.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in York vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 53.9% for York vs Port Vale.
Which team will win the corner count in York vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated York to win the corner count at 57.2%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

League TwoYork fixtures and statsPort Vale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.