AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
AccringtonAccringtonWDWDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
NorthamptonNorthamptonLDWLW

Accrington vs Northampton cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Accrington vs Northampton. Slightly more cards are projected for Accrington for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.5% 26.5%
3.5 cards 53.2% 46.8%
4.5 cards 33.7% 66.3%
5.5 cards 18.8% 81.2%

Who picks up more cards

Accrington
42.1%
Level
21.2%
Northampton
36.7%

Team cards lines

Accrington

Over 1.5
58.9%
Over 2.5
31.8%

Northampton

Over 1.5
55.0%
Over 2.5
28.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Accrington's; Northampton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Accrington line Accrington Northampton
-1.5 23.3% 76.7%
-0.5 42.1% 57.9%
+0.5 63.3% 36.7%
+1.5 80.8% 19.2%

Red card

Any red card17.7%
Accrington red card10.3%
Northampton red card8.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.6% 33.4%
22.5 fouls 51.2% 48.8%
24.5 fouls 36.1% 63.9%
AccringtonAccrington

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Accrington at home and Northampton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

NorthamptonNorthampton
Statistic
Accrington
Northampton
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.7

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Yellow cards per game
2.9
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
1.1
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.8
1.0

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
42.9%

Matches with card data
6
7
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. Between the two sides, Accrington are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Accrington over 1.5 cards sits at 58.9% and Northampton at 55.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.7% (Accrington 10.3%, Northampton 8.3%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.2%Over 3.5 cards
17.7%Any red card
42.1%Most cards: Accrington
58.9%Accrington over 1.5 cards
55.0%Northampton over 1.5 cards
51.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.7%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAccrington are the pick to collect more cards at 42.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 53.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AccringtonAccrington

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

NorthamptonNorthampton
Statistic
Accrington
Northampton
cards per game
·
2.0

fouls per game
14.5
11.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Accrington vs Northampton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.2% for Accrington vs Northampton.
Will there be a red card in Accrington vs Northampton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Accrington vs Northampton?
The model rates Accrington to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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League TwoAccrington fixtures and statsNorthampton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.