AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

League Two
GrimsbyGrimsbyLLLDW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:30UK
YorkYorkDDDWL

Grimsby vs York cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Grimsby vs York. It tips York for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 71.9% 28.2%
3.5 cards 51.1% 48.9%
4.5 cards 31.7% 68.3%
5.5 cards 17.3% 82.7%

Who picks up more cards

Grimsby
28.6%
Level
20.8%
York
50.6%

Team cards lines

Grimsby

Over 1.5
46.9%
Over 2.5
21.2%

York

Over 1.5
63.1%
Over 2.5
36.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Grimsby's; York gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Grimsby line Grimsby York
-1.5 13.4% 86.6%
-0.5 28.6% 71.4%
+0.5 49.4% 50.6%
+1.5 69.9% 30.1%

Red card

Any red card19.2%
Grimsby red card7.9%
York red card12.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.4% 33.6%
22.5 fouls 51.0% 49.0%
24.5 fouls 35.9% 64.1%
GrimsbyGrimsby

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Grimsby at home and York away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

YorkYork
Statistic
Grimsby
York
Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.2

Matches with more cards than the opponent
25.0%
·

Matches with card data
8
7
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.9% for over 2.5 to 17.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. Between the two sides, York are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 20.8%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Grimsby over 1.5 cards sits at 46.9% and York at 63.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.2% (Grimsby 7.9%, York 12.2%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

51.1%Over 3.5 cards
19.2%Any red card
50.6%Most cards: York
46.9%Grimsby over 1.5 cards
63.1%York over 1.5 cards
51.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianYork are the pick to collect more cards at 50.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
GrimsbyGrimsby

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

YorkYork
Statistic
Grimsby
York
cards per game
2.4
·

fouls per game
12.0
9.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Grimsby vs York?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.1% for Grimsby vs York.
Will there be a red card in Grimsby vs York?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Grimsby vs York?
The model rates York to pick up more cards at 50.6%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoGrimsby fixtures and statsYork fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.