AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
Port ValePort ValeLWWDL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:30UK
RochdaleRochdaleWDLDL

Port Vale vs Rochdale cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.7%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.3%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Port Vale vs Rochdale. It tips Rochdale for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.7% 31.3%
3.5 cards 47.3% 52.7%
4.5 cards 28.3% 71.7%
5.5 cards 14.8% 85.2%

Who picks up more cards

Port Vale
34.4%
Level
22.0%
Rochdale
43.7%

Team cards lines

Port Vale

Over 1.5
49.4%
Over 2.5
23.2%

Rochdale

Over 1.5
56.2%
Over 2.5
29.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Port Vale's; Rochdale gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Port Vale line Port Vale Rochdale
-1.5 17.0% 83.0%
-0.5 34.4% 65.6%
+0.5 56.4% 43.7%
+1.5 76.1% 23.9%

Red card

Any red card12.9%
Port Vale red card4.2%
Rochdale red card9.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 68.5% 31.5%
22.5 fouls 53.4% 46.6%
24.5 fouls 38.2% 61.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Rochdale D Bourne 2 4.5 2.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Port ValePort Vale

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Port Vale at home and Rochdale away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

RochdaleRochdale
Statistic
Port Vale
Rochdale
Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.3
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
0.9

Matches with more cards than the opponent
42.9%
37.5%

Matches with card data
7
8
Red cards this season
0
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 47.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.7% for over 2.5 to 14.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.3%. On the card count, Rochdale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 22.0%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Port Vale over 1.5 cards sits at 49.4% and Rochdale at 56.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.9% (Port Vale 4.2%, Rochdale 9.1%). Rochdale’s most frequent referee this season, D Bourne, has averaged 4.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Port Vale have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Rochdale 1.5.

47.3%Over 3.5 cards
12.9%Any red card
43.7%Most cards: Rochdale
49.4%Port Vale over 1.5 cards
56.2%Rochdale over 1.5 cards
53.4%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherD Bourne, Rochdale’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianRochdale are the pick to collect more cards at 43.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
Port ValePort Vale

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

RochdaleRochdale
Statistic
Port Vale
Rochdale
cards per game
1.7
1.5

fouls per game
13.3
11.0

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.3% for Port Vale vs Rochdale.
Will there be a red card in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
The model rates Rochdale to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 22.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoPort Vale fixtures and statsRochdale fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.