Championship
Wolves vs West Brom Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 49.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 62.4% for over 22.5 to 26.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.8%. On the shot count, Wolves are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.2%, with a level count at 5.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.1%
56.8%
40.3%
52.9%
34.8%
20.5%
Shot handicap
| Wolves line | Wolves | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| -2.5 | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| -0.5 | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.9% | 71.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
16.2Wolves shots per game11.0Wolves shots faced per game10.3West Brom shots per game11.1West Brom shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Wolves.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
49.8%Over 24.5 shots56.8%Wolves over 12.5 shots34.8%West Brom over 12.5 shots52.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Wolves over 12.5 shots sits at 56.8% and West Brom at 34.8%. This season Wolves have averaged 16.2 shots a game and West Brom 10.3.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 49.8% for Wolves vs West Brom.
Which team will have more shots in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates Wolves to take more shots at 62.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
