Championship
Wolves vs West Brom Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 58.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Wolves have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, West Brom 1.0 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 41.3% for over 2.5 and 68.4% for at least two goals. Wolves have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, West Brom in 1 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.7% | 10.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 68.4% | 31.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.8% | 91.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.2% | 96.8% |
Team goal lines
63.9%
27.1%
8.4%
73.2%
37.9%
14.7%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.5% | 81.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.8% | 81.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.3Wolves goals scored per game1.7Wolves goals conceded per game83.3%Wolves Over 2.5 rate1.2Wolves 1st-half goals per game1.4West Brom goals scored per game1.0West Brom goals conceded per game37.5%West Brom Over 2.5 rate0.6West Brom 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
47.4%Both Teams to Score41.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 41.3% for three or more goals and 68.4% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With West Brom favoured at 42.8%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans West Brom to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wolves vs West Brom?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 41.3% for Wolves vs West Brom.
Will there be a first-half goal in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 77.1%.
How often have Wolves gone over 2.5 recently?
Wolves have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, West Brom in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| under_specialist v1.0 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
