Championship
Wolves vs West Brom Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.5% for over 2.5 to 16.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.4%. On the card count, West Brom are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 20.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.5% | 29.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.2% | 83.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
43.7%
18.7%
63.6%
36.7%
Card handicap
| Wolves line | Wolves | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.8% | 88.2% |
| -0.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| +0.5 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| +1.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.4% | 68.6% |
This season (2026/27)
1.0Wolves cards per game11.5Wolves fouls per game2.3West Brom cards per game9.9West Brom fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wolves vs West Brom. The model leans toward West Brom for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
49.4%Over 3.5 cards5.6%Any red card43.7%Wolves over 1.5 cards63.6%West Brom over 1.5 cards46.0%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Wolves over 1.5 cards sits at 43.7% and West Brom at 63.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.6% (Wolves 1.1%, West Brom 4.5%). This season Wolves have averaged 1.0 cards a game and West Brom 2.3.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.4% for Wolves vs West Brom.
Will there be a red card in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wolves vs West Brom?
The model rates West Brom to pick up more cards at 53.1%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
