"57% on Aris is a measurement, not a promise." Aris go into this Super League Greece meeting with Iraklis on 19 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 57%. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 60%. Totals sit close to the fence: 49% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. Iraklis are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Aris W4 D0 L2, Iraklis W2 D3 L1. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
High risk
Over 8.5 corners47.4%@ 2.11
Draw or Iraklis42.5%@ 2.35
Over 9.5 corners37.1%@ 2.70
Medium risk
Not both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Over 2.5 goals48.6%@ 2.06
Random finds
1-0 correct score12.2%@ 8.22
1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.58
2-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.00
Model vs market
Aris
57.5%-2.8%
Draw
24.5%+0.5%
Iraklis
18.0%+2.3%
ModelMarket
value_gap +0.023 <= 0.03
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely74.2%Fair 1.35
Over 2.5Close call48.6%Fair 2.06
BTTS · YesClose call48.6%Fair 2.06
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call47.4%Fair 2.11
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely37.1%Fair 2.70
Over 10.5 cornersLong shot28.0%Fair 3.57
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot20.4%Fair 4.90
Most cornersAris57.8%Iraklis31.2%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call54.5%Fair 1.84
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely43.0%Fair 2.33
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely32.3%Fair 3.09
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot23.1%Fair 4.34
Recent shot volume
Aris15.5 taken10.5 faced
Iraklis8.2 taken16.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Aris win1.571.74
Draw3.754.08
Iraklis win5.505.56
Over 2.5 goals2.002.06
Under 2.5 goals1.801.95
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Aris win1.74
Draw4.08
Iraklis win5.57
Both teams to score2.06
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.73
Aris most1.74
Iraklis most5.57
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners2.05
Over 9.5 corners2.73
Over 10.5 corners3.84
Aris most1.72
Iraklis most3.20
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.13
Over 3.5 cards1.32
Over 4.5 cards1.70
Over 5.5 cards2.42
Aris most2.97
Iraklis most2.06
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.44
Over 7.5 SoT1.72
Over 8.5 SoT2.15
Over 9.5 SoT2.78
Aris most1.54
Iraklis most4.05
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.84
Over 24.5 shots2.33
Over 26.5 shots3.09
Over 28.5 shots4.34
Aris most1.50
Iraklis most3.55
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.07
Over 22.5 fouls1.13
Over 24.5 fouls1.25
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
54.5%
Over 24.5
43.0%
Over 26.5
32.3%
Over 28.5
23.1%
Most: Aris
66.6%
Most: Iraklis
28.2%
Aris Over 13.2
47.5%
Iraklis Over 13.2
21.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
69.4%
Over 7.5
58.0%
Over 8.5
46.6%
Over 9.5
36.0%
Most: Aris
64.8%
Most: Iraklis
24.7%
Aris Over 4.2
55.1%
Iraklis Over 4.2
25.7%
Cards
Over 2.5
88.9%
Over 3.5
75.8%
Over 4.5
58.8%
Most: Aris
33.6%
Most: Iraklis
48.6%
Aris Over 1.8
68.4%
Iraklis Over 1.8
77.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Aris clean sheet
41.4%
Iraklis clean sheet
17.5%
Aris win to nil
33.6%
Iraklis win to nil
9.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
57.5%
draw
24.5%
away
18.0%
double_chance
1X
82.0%
12
75.5%
X2
42.5%
dnb
home
76.2%
away
23.8%
btts
yes
48.6%
no
51.4%
clean_sheet
home
41.8%
away
17.5%
win_to_nil
home
34.0%
away
9.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
24.7%
home_by_2
18.0%
home_by_3plus
14.9%
away_by_1
12.0%
away_by_2
4.5%
away_by_3plus
1.5%
correct_score
0-0
7.9%
0-1
5.8%
0-2
2.8%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.7%
1-2
4.8%
1-3
1.4%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.6%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.0%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
0.0%
p
12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.2%
under_0.5
7.9%
over_1.5
74.2%
under_1.5
25.8%
over_2.5
48.6%
under_2.5
51.4%
over_3.5
26.8%
under_3.5
73.2%
over_4.5
12.5%
under_4.5
87.5%
over_5.5
5.1%
under_5.5
94.9%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
82.6%
under_0.5
17.5%
over_1.5
52.1%
under_1.5
47.9%
over_2.5
25.5%
under_2.5
74.5%
team_away
over_0.5
58.2%
under_0.5
41.8%
over_1.5
21.7%
under_1.5
78.3%
over_2.5
5.8%
under_2.5
94.2%
most
home
57.5%
draw
24.5%
away
18.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
14.9%
away_+2.5
85.1%
home_-1.5
32.9%
away_+1.5
67.1%
home_-0.5
57.5%
away_+0.5
42.5%
home_+0.5
82.0%
away_-0.5
18.0%
home_+1.5
94.1%
away_-1.5
5.9%
home_+2.5
98.6%
away_-2.5
1.5%
total_exact
exact_0
7.9%
exact_1
18.0%
exact_2
25.5%
exact_3
21.8%
exact_4
14.3%
exact_5
7.5%
exact_6
3.3%
exact_7plus
1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
37.3%
draw
43.2%
away
19.5%
total
over_0.5
67.1%
under_0.5
32.9%
over_1.5
30.5%
under_1.5
69.5%
over_2.5
10.2%
under_2.5
89.8%
btts
yes
17.1%
no
82.9%
total_exact
exact_0
32.9%
exact_1
36.6%
exact_2
20.3%
exact_3
7.5%
exact_4plus
2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
37.2%
draw
38.4%
away
24.5%
total
over_0.5
74.7%
under_0.5
25.3%
over_1.5
40.0%
under_1.5
60.0%
over_2.5
16.1%
under_2.5
84.0%
btts
yes
24.2%
no
75.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
30.3%
H/D
5.3%
H/A
1.7%
D/H
16.0%
D/D
16.6%
D/A
10.6%
A/H
2.0%
A/D
4.3%
A/A
13.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
61.7%
under_7.5
38.3%
over_8.5
48.8%
under_8.5
51.2%
over_9.5
36.6%
under_9.5
63.4%
over_10.5
26.0%
under_10.5
74.0%
over_11.5
17.6%
under_11.5
82.4%
over_12.5
11.3%
under_12.5
88.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
68.4%
under_3.5
31.7%
over_4.5
52.5%
under_4.5
47.5%
over_5.5
37.6%
under_5.5
62.4%
team_away
over_3.5
48.5%
under_3.5
51.5%
over_4.5
31.8%
under_4.5
68.2%
over_5.5
19.1%
under_5.5
80.9%
most
home
58.0%
draw
10.7%
away
31.3%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.0%
away_+3.5
74.0%
home_-1.5
46.7%
away_+1.5
53.3%
home_-0.5
58.0%
away_+0.5
42.0%
home_+0.5
68.7%
away_-0.5
31.3%
home_+1.5
78.0%
away_-1.5
22.0%
home_+3.5
91.0%
away_-3.5
9.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
54.5%
under_22.5
45.5%
over_24.5
43.0%
under_24.5
57.0%
over_26.5
32.3%
under_26.5
67.7%
over_28.5
23.1%
under_28.5
76.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
69.7%
under_10.5
30.3%
over_12.5
54.9%
under_12.5
45.1%
over_14.5
40.4%
under_14.5
59.6%
team_away
over_10.5
42.5%
under_10.5
57.5%
over_12.5
27.2%
under_12.5
72.8%
over_14.5
16.0%
under_14.5
84.0%
most
home
66.6%
draw
5.2%
away
28.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
43.5%
away_+4.5
56.6%
home_-2.5
55.2%
away_+2.5
44.8%
home_-0.5
66.6%
away_+0.5
33.4%
home_+0.5
71.8%
away_-0.5
28.2%
home_+2.5
80.9%
away_-2.5
19.1%
home_+4.5
87.9%
away_-4.5
12.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
69.4%
under_6.5
30.6%
over_7.5
58.0%
under_7.5
42.0%
over_8.5
46.6%
under_8.5
53.4%
over_9.5
36.0%
under_9.5
64.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.8%
under_3.5
30.2%
over_4.5
55.1%
under_4.5
44.9%
over_5.5
41.1%
under_5.5
59.0%
team_away
over_3.5
41.3%
under_3.5
58.8%
over_4.5
25.7%
under_4.5
74.3%
over_5.5
14.9%
under_5.5
85.1%
most
home
64.8%
draw
10.6%
away
24.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
41.4%
away_+2.5
58.6%
home_-0.5
64.8%
away_+0.5
35.3%
home_+0.5
75.3%
away_-0.5
24.7%
home_+2.5
90.2%
away_-2.5
9.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
88.9%
under_2.5
11.1%
over_3.5
75.8%
under_3.5
24.2%
over_4.5
58.9%
under_4.5
41.2%
over_5.5
41.3%
under_5.5
58.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
68.4%
under_1.5
31.6%
over_2.5
42.1%
under_2.5
57.9%
team_away
over_1.5
77.0%
under_1.5
23.0%
over_2.5
53.2%
under_2.5
46.8%
most
home
33.6%
draw
17.7%
away
48.6%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.0%
away_+1.5
81.0%
home_-0.5
33.6%
away_+0.5
66.4%
home_+0.5
51.4%
away_-0.5
48.6%
home_+1.5
68.7%
away_-1.5
31.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
93.9%
under_20.5
6.1%
over_22.5
88.3%
under_22.5
11.7%
over_24.5
80.2%
under_24.5
19.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
89.1%
under_9.5
10.9%
over_11.5
76.8%
under_11.5
23.2%
over_13.5
60.4%
under_13.5
39.6%
team_away
over_9.5
89.8%
under_9.5
10.2%
over_11.5
77.8%
under_11.5
22.2%
over_13.5
61.7%
under_13.5
38.3%
most
home
45.8%
draw
6.4%
away
47.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
27.9%
away_+3.5
72.1%
home_-0.5
45.8%
away_+0.5
54.2%
home_+2.5
64.6%
away_-2.5
35.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
26.6%
no
73.4%
home
yes
6.8%
no
93.2%
away
yes
21.3%
no
78.7%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Super League Greece
Aris
Iraklis