Eredivisie
Willem II vs 
For Sittard Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 62.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 72.9% for over 22.5 to 40.5% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. On the shot count, Willem II are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.3%, with a level count at 5.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 40.5% | 59.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
77.2%
63.5%
48.8%
62.7%
46.5%
31.8%
Shot handicap
| Willem II line | Willem II | For Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| -2.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.3Willem II shots per game20.3Willem II shots faced per game9.0For Sittard shots per game21.0For Sittard shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Willem II.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
62.5%Over 24.5 shots63.5%Willem II over 12.5 shots46.5%For Sittard over 12.5 shots73.7%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Willem II over 12.5 shots sits at 63.5% and For Sittard at 46.5%. This season Willem II have averaged 11.3 shots a game and For Sittard 9.0.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 62.5% for Willem II vs For Sittard.
Which team will have more shots in Willem II vs For Sittard?
The model rates Willem II to take more shots at 59.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
